This spring, the Japanese people were doing something unprecedented - at home and at work, in subway cars and over a beer after a hard day's work, they only talked about their new prime minister, although until recently, it seemed that the local public was not at all interested in what kind of person occupies the main administrative chair in the country. The troublemaker was 59-year-old Junichiro Koizumi, who, according to all public opinion polls, at once and almost from scratch won unprecedented, almost implausible, popularity in the country. More than 80 percent of voters consistently support the new prime minister, hope for him, every word he says, every action is eagerly caught and hotly discussed.

Thanks to his popularity, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won an impressive victory in the elections to the upper house of the country's parliament in late July.

"Suspicious crank", "bold reformist", "nationalist hawk", "nimble populist", "second Gorbachev" - all these contradictory nicknames and labels are firmly attached to the new prime minister, who at the end of April, contrary to all forecasts, literally crushed his powerful rivals in the fight for the post of chairman of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. political parties and, consequently, heads of government. The "Koizumi phenomenon" is being written about all over the world, because, judging by numerous hints, the new owner of the most important cabinet in Tokyo seriously intends to significantly change both the essence and style of the second economic power's policy

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planets. However, let us repeat once again, so far only one thing can be stated without error - this thin man with a height of 169 centimeters and a weight of 60 kilograms is strikingly different from most of his colleagues in the Japanese political world, among whom there is a habit of gray uniformity, cowardly conformity, quiet backstage intrigue and vague florid statements.

CHALLENGING CONFUCIAN MORALITY

If a classic of Russian literature wrote that in a person "everything should be fine", then Koizumi seems to believe that he "everything should be different from others." Deliberately defying tradition, he, for example, 15 years ago refused to mandatory in Japan for a" solid person " standard hairstyle with nabriolinennym parting. In return, Koizumi has grown a wild head of hair, which he curls into large curls four times a year at the same hairdresser and sprays with varnish so that the hair does not flutter in the wind during street rallies. Admiring fans claim that the romantic hairstyle makes the new prime minister look like Beethoven, and detractors hiss about his resemblance to the"curly watchdog".

Koizumi wears light suits that are unusual for Japanese politicians and does not hide her love for youth music, which terrifies local decorum lovers. In karaoke bars, for example, he enjoys singing one of the gizmos of the now-defunct Japanese punk band Ex - Japan, whose members dyed their hair in toxic chemical colors and became famous for hooligan antics.

At the same time, Koizumi listens to classical music with equal interest, and in his youth he played the violin. He is known as a keen connoisseur of European grape wines and heads the Japanese Wine Tasting Association. And this is in a country where, until very recently, people "under sixty", as a rule, were familiar only with beer, whiskey and local rice vodka - sake, and everything else was considered dubious overseas sourness.

Koizumi graduated from the economics department of the prestigious private Keio University (Japan's oldest), studied in London, and is said to have a passable command of English, unlike most Japanese politicians. The new prime minister's marital status is also extremely unusual, almost scandalous - in 1978, he married a student who was fourteen years younger. However, four years later, he divorced and since then has been living as a bachelor, raising two sons alone, who have already become students.

The government, by the way, expresses some concern about the family status of the new prime minister, because, they say, on official foreign trips he will have to go without the first lady in violation of protocol. However, Koizumi himself categorically refuses to marry a second time. According to rumors, the new prime minister once let slip in a circle of friends that after a painful divorce, he can't even think about starting a new family without shuddering.

All this is no doubt perceived as a challenge to traditional Confucian morality, which requires the aforementioned "solid person" to be the head of a full-fledged family or, at the very least, a widower. However, Koizumi seems to be doing outrageous things quite deliberately, since he chose for himself the role of a politician who is extremely new to Japan and constantly plays for the public. As for the customs and rules that he violates, the new prime minister ignores them not out of naivety, because he knows the code of conduct in the local political world perfectly well-from childhood.

THIRD-GENERATION POLITICIAN

The fact is that Koizumi is a professional politician in the third generation. Deputies and ministers were his grandfather and father (the former rose up the career ladder to the posts of Minister of communications and vice-chairman of the lower house, and the second - to the chair of the chief of the military department), and little Jun was also trained for a parliamentary career from the cradle. True, the legacy of the current prime minister was mostly only a fantastic ambition and ability to achieve goals, since the Koizumi seniors did not make much money.

In fact, politics in Japan is a lucrative occupation, and most deputies become wealthy people in three or four elected terms in parliament, skillfully using "political donations", as legal donations from businessmen are called here. However, Koizumi, by local standards, is not rich: all his movable and immovable property is estimated at 55.6 million yen - just over 450 thousand dollars. The most valuable thing he owns is the family home in Yokosuka, near Tokyo, with an area of 114 square meters, which was inherited after the death of his father.

Koizumi's ability to raise political donations is also weak, which is usually used here to assess the true weight of a politician and the strength of his connections. According to official figures, in 1999, he collected only 87 million yen worth of such offerings. For comparison, one of Koizumi's rivals in the recent battle for the post of prime minister, the former chairman of the political council of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Shizuka Kamei, during the same time organized political donations worth more than 675 million yen. Koichi Kato, a close friend of Koizumi and his most important ally in the Liberal Democratic Party, also has a good result - 555 million yen.

To a large extent, this indicates the weakness of the new prime minister's personal connections in the business environment. His contacts mainly extend to the world of writers and artists, and among the major entrepreneurs with Koizumi regularly meets, according to rumors, only the honorary chairman of the Board of directors of the beer company "Asahi Biru". And even then, their paths cross mainly at classical music concerts in Tokyo's Suntory Hall.

On the other hand, Koizumi, as they say about him, to some extent consciously limited-

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This increases the scope of the hunt for political donations. He carefully cares about the purity of his reputation, is afraid of accusations of corruption, which constantly pursue most of his colleagues in the LDP. Having made a bet on creating the image of a non-standard politician of a new type, attracting attention through television, Koizumi, moreover, did not actively use traditional methods for the Japanese political world to fight for the sympathy of voters - for example, sending them greeting cards, bouquets for weddings or organizing bus tours for retired women. It is for these purposes, by the way, that the lion's share of political donations collected by the leaders of the Liberal Democrats is spent.

Koizumi was first elected to the lower house of Parliament in 1972 and has been elected there nine times since. In the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, he made an excellent career, several times holding ministerial posts (health and social security, post and telegraph). Recently, before being elected leader of the LDP, Koizumi easily headed the second largest internal party faction, to which, by the way, his predecessor as prime minister, Yoshiro Mori, belongs.

This best proves that Koizumi is not the naive and straightforward oddball that rumor sometimes paints him as. The current prime minister clearly knows how to play and win according to the traditional rules for liberal Democrats, and he refused them only because he realized earlier than others: the Japanese are tired of the impersonality of the country's political world, they want resolute and bright leaders of a new type. Leaders you want to believe in, talk about, and gossip about if you want.

"LET'S REBUILD THE LDP - LET'S REBUILD JAPAN"

Since the late 1980s, Japan has been in the longest period of economic stagnation in its entire post-war history. For a while, there were faint hopes for a relatively rapid improvement in the situation, but the country's residents entered the new millennium in a very despondent mood. Experts grimly predict that Japan is stomping on the spot, accompanied by the loss of its status as the world's second economic power, a reduction in industrial production, layoffs and other troubles. So far, however, nothing particularly disastrous has happened in the country, and during the May holidays (they mostly coincide with Russian holidays in Japan), a record number of Japanese people went to foreign resorts, for example. Nevertheless, the hopeless economic depression creates an ever-increasing fear among voters for their future and a desire to see politicians in power in the country who are able to"do something".

Disillusionment with the Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled Japan monopolistically since the mid-1950s, led to its electoral failure and split early in the previous decade. After that, there were a series of shaky coalition governments with the participation of the former opposition forces, but they could not reverse the situation in the economy. As a result, disappointed voters decided that "they are not looking for good from good," and again voted for the Liberal Democrats, who were bored to death, but still more sophisticated in government.

In recent years, however, a strong, almost overwhelming, but not entirely clear, desire for change has gradually grown in Japan. It is precisely this psychological attitude of voters that gives a unique chance to those politicians who will be able to prove their difference from the boring LDP bosses and not too convincing oppositionists. This is exactly what Koizumi, who for many years built up a reputation for being a "crank" with high principles, clean hands and a clear program for bringing the country out of stagnation, made a bet on.

The main slogan of the current prime minister is "Let's rebuild the LDP - let's rebuild Japan". He argues, not without reason, that the party that has ruled the country for almost half a century has long entangled the entire local economic and political system in a dense web of control. The Liberal Democratic Party in Japan is not just one of the political organizations, but the structure on which the state is based.

Koizumi therefore calls not to believe the opposition, but in the name of change to support his program of total restructuring of the ruling party. First of all, he would like to eliminate the existing system of semi-autonomous factions, whose leaders solve all issues of national politics through behind-the-scenes collusion. Koizumi calls for an open and transparent political structure for voters, although skeptics say that the LDP is not capable of restructuring.

However, the prime minister has already taken the first step towards his goal - during the campaign for the election of a new leader of the Liberal Democrats, he did not rely on factional collusions, but addressed ordinary LDP members directly. They provided him with a crushing victory over his main rival - former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, who relied on the largest group in the LDP, on the party leadership, and built the game on the old proven rules.

Koizumi also deliberately formed his government not on a factional basis, but from "smart people" who were selected by himself. However, to be honest, it is not entirely clear how the new prime Minister will fight for the real elimination of the factions that form both the basis and the very essence of the LDP. The disappearance of these "appanage principalities" will mean the destruction of the party in its current form, which will have enormous, difficult to predict consequences for the whole of Japan.

No less bold, though slightly chaotic, Koizumi is planning reforms in the economic sphere. Doubts, for example, are expressed about his intention to sharply limit the deficit financing of the budget at the expense of government bonds.

The prime minister announced that he considers his main task to be a radical financial recovery of the country, and not the usual attempts for Tokyo to revive the market situation by pumping budget funds into the economy, which does not give

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now a noticeable result. Koizumi's logic has its own persuasiveness - everyone understands that the national debt, which reaches a third of the country's gross domestic product, cannot be inflated further, but then where can the money to stimulate the stalling economy come from? Koizumi himself understands the danger of his program, which calls on people to "not be afraid of pain" and accept the fact that with the reduction of government subsidies, Japan will face two or three years of economic decline, threatening layoffs, reduced incomes and consumer demand. But after this shock therapy, the prime minister assures at numerous rallies, everything will be fine.

BETTER A CHANGE, HOWEVER PAINFUL...

While such statements bring Koizumi only new points. "The Japanese are more afraid of stagnation than of change, even if it is painful,"says Gerald Curtis, a well - known expert on Japanese politics and professor at Columbia University. However, there is no doubt that the popularity of any politician will go to hell if the" pain " of perestroika and shock therapy lasts too long.

Another strong point of the new prime minister's economic program is the denationalization of the state post office and its network of state savings banks, which enjoy the greatest trust among the population (the percentage, of course, is lower than that of private entrepreneurs, but it is reliable). Koizumi suggests that this system should be corporatized in order to replenish government funds for stimulating the economy by selling securities. At the same time, he is confident that private capital will be able to more cleverly use the funds of ordinary people for investment, which lie in postal savings banks and reach a fantastic amount of 2.1 trillion dollars. However, the implementation of the plan will inevitably lead to a reduction in the staff of postmen and other employees of this system, who have traditionally supported the LDP. In other words, if Koizumi's plans are implemented, the party will lose many voters.

The new prime minister would just as strongly like to deal with the ills of private banks, which suffer from a huge mass of " bad " - that is, unreliable-loans that were carelessly issued in the previous years of the economic boom and now cannot be repaid. "Bad" loans are undermining the country's ability to invest and revive the economy, as financial companies are now extremely reluctant to lend money for fear of further failures.

The new prime Minister demands a decisive write-off of these debts and the creation of a transparent, controlled and efficient private financial system in the country. This, again, can lead to the bankruptcy of many banks and undermine the position of a significant number of their depositors. At the same time, skeptics say that the prime minister's determination in the financial and economic sphere is largely based on the fact that he lacks broad connections among big business and therefore does not take his problems too personally.

The new prime minister's intention to introduce a system of direct elections of the head of government is also controversial. Such a step, undoubtedly, will dramatically revive political life, attract the attention of voters to it, and give a chance to promote bright personalities to the first post in the state, and not the proteges of factions in the LDP. However, a direct election of the prime minister is likely to lead to the demise of the ruling party in its current form, as the leaders of the Liberal Democrats in this case will forget about amicable agreements ("this year I command, and then I will give way to you") and come together in a deadly battle for the main seat. This prospect drives veterans of the conservative world crazy, who frighten the public with the idea that "irresponsible populists"will make their way to the prime ministers under the new system.

The list of reforms that Koizumi spoke about can be continued even further - for example, the elimination of the current system of administrative division of the country and the introduction of larger governorships with expanded powers instead of prefectures (according to the principle - take as many rights on the spot as you can digest). The prime minister once proposed raising the retirement age from 60 to 65 years, reducing social allocations (a person, according to his logic, should take care of himself, and not sit as a freeloader on the state neck).

Koizumi made a number of populist curtsies to the nationalist public, including statements on the revision of the 9th "peaceful" article of the constitution and a pilgrimage to Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine, which is considered a stronghold of the forces of aggressive nationalism and is dedicated to " soldiers who died for the emperor." These steps can cause diplomatic problems, especially in relations with China and the Korean states, which react sharply to any signs of " the revival of Japanese militarism." However, it seems that the new prime minister is not going to get involved in foreign policy conflicts. He has already said that his diplomacy will focus on developing dialogue with China, Russia and other neighbors - and, of course, while strengthening the alliance with the United States as much as possible. And in his first keynote speech, he said nothing about the revision of article 9, nor about the "right to collective defense."

Of course, the implementation of Koizumi's plans threatens Japan with enormous changes. But we must not forget that Koizumi, who is extremely popular among the people, was elected by the Liberal Democrats for almost the sole purpose of preventing the party from failing in the July elections to the upper house of parliament. Therefore, all the statements Koizumi made after taking up his new position, in fact, should be regarded only as a stream of pre-election campaigning designed to convince voters that the ruling party, which is boring everyone, has changed and is ready to boldly lead the country to beneficial changes. The real conversation about Koizumi's agenda and his ability to translate words into actions only begins now, after winning the July election.

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