On April 19-20, 2006, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted a regular annual scientific conference organized by the Southeast Asia Department. It focuses on current problems and trends in the development of the region and individual Southeast Asian countries. The conference was dedicated to the memory of Doctor of Historical Sciences Alexander Borisovich Belenky. The conference was attended by employees of the Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, other academic institutes, higher educational institutions in Moscow, and employees of practical organizations.

A. B. Belenky is the first Russian researcher of social thought in Indonesia in modern and contemporary times. Today, there are practically no orientalists studying Indonesian history who do not refer to his major works in this area. They are distinguished by the depth and objectivity of the analysis, thoroughness in the selection of material, sharpness of formulations and conclusions. In the memory of all those who knew him, A. B. Belenky will remain a man who combined high scientific integrity with great diligence, broad erudition, genuine intelligence and cordiality.

The conference program included two main reports and three blocks of issues: regional aspects of politics and geopolitics, general economic issues, and country problems.

The main presentations were made by the Heads of the Department. Department of Southeast Asia D. V. Mosyakov and S. A. Bylinyak (both of IB RAS).

Dmitry Mosyakov's report "Political and Economic Processes in Greater East Asia: New Realities and Prospects" noted that integration in Greater East Asia (ASEAN, China, Taiwan, Japan, and both Koreas) has been developing more and more intensively in recent years. The surge in unifying trends is explained by the rapid economic growth of most countries in the region, the gradual transformation of Greater East Asia into one of the leading countries in the region.-

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the largest industrial and commercial centers in the world. Ideologically, these tendencies are most often manifested in hidden or explicit anti-Americanism and" new-old " ideas of pan-Asiatism, which are popular among some of the East Asian political and intellectual elite. The desire for mutual integration is also connected with the experience of overcoming the Asian financial and economic crisis of 1997-1998. Many influential regional politicians (Lee Kuan Yew, Mahathir Mohamad, Fidel Ramos) believe that the crisis was provoked by the United States in order to bring down economic growth in the region. Mutual cooperation will help avoid a similar crisis situation caused by external forces in the future. The formation of a new region-wide organization "East Asian Summits" (EAS) (Kuala Lumpur, December 2005), based on the ideology of pan-Asianism, is seen as a likely alternative to APEC, where the United States plays a key role. According to Dmitry Mosyakov, the formation of the EAC indicates a certain change in the alignment of political forces in Asia (the weakening of the US position in the region). The emergence of a new regional structure is seen as a success mainly of Chinese diplomacy, a sign of China's recognition in Asia as the future leader and locomotive of Asian development.

S. A. Bylinyak (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "Southeast Asian countries: problems of choosing a model of economic growth", noted that the Southeast Asian countries have entered the post-crisis stage of economic growth. However, the growth rate remained significantly lower than in the pre-crisis period. Since the previous high growth rates were linked to the implementation of the export-oriented model, this model was seriously criticized. Some researchers believe that this model has outlived its usefulness in Southeast Asia. Leaders of some countries (Thailand, Malaysia) also speak about the need to reorient economic growth to domestic demand. However, experts of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), based on a study of the modern economy of Southeast Asia, deny the fact of the influence of export-oriented development on the financial crisis of 1997-1998. They also believe that while the Southeast Asian countries ' exports are still growing at a higher rate than GDP. S. A. Bylinyak believes that the understanding that external risks are very dangerous, destructive and uncontrolled as a result of the crisis may encourage the Southeast Asian countries to implement a strategy focused on domestic demand to a greater extent than before.

A. I. Ignatov (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation) was the first speaker on the first block of problems - politics and geopolitics in the region. Considering the relations between Russia and ASEAN at the present time and in the future, he stressed that the Association countries are one of the priorities in Russia's foreign policy. In recent years, the scale of economic cooperation between Russia and ASEAN has significantly increased, a number of economic agreements have been signed, and the total trade turnover with its member countries has reached $ 6 billion. ASEAN is the engine of many economic and political processes in the East Asian region, the center for developing a security system, and determines the format and activities of the new regional structure - EAC. It is significant that the first speaker at this summit in Kuala Lumpur (December 2005) was Russian President Vladimir Putin. Obviously, Russia has a chance to join a new regional organization, although there is still no consensus among the ASEAN states on this issue. A. I. Ignatov focused on specific documents concerning our country's relations with ASEAN, concluding that the prospects for developing cooperation are quite encouraging, although more proactive approaches are needed on the part of our relevant departments.

L. F. Pakhomova (Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences) gave a speech on the results of three summits held in Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia) from December 11 to 14, 2005. The first ASEAN-Russia Summit identified ways to further significantly expand and deepen trade and economic ties.

The creation of the EAC is based on the principle of open regionalism and the ASEAN + X formula (i.e., the number of members is not limited), and admission to it is based on three criteria. All 16 countries (see Mosyakov's report) meet the three criteria required for admission to the community. One of the criteria (the signing of the Bali Treaty of 1976) was not met by the United States, which was absent from the summit. At the summit of 16 states, the EAC roadmap was adopted, including the development and adoption of the charter of a new organization, the creation of a free trade zone, a unified transport and communication network, the formation of a common currency market, etc.The emergence of a new structure in a vast region can cause, according to L. F. Pakhomova, geostrategic and geo-economic consequences in the world economic system. Defining the leading economic force in expanding and deepening integration remains a key issue. The issue of Russia's admission to the EAC will be decided at the summit in December 2006.

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in the Philippines. Currently, the contours of the future unification configuration have been determined: ASEAN - core, followed by ASEAN + 3 (in two versions) and, finally, EAC.

The ASEAN Summit was closed in nature, as it discussed issues related to the political aspects and principles of the Association's activities in the new environment.

In his speech, V. F. Urlyapov (IB RAS) gave an assessment of the new regional structure-EAC. The first East Asia Summit was expected to be an important step towards building a broad regional community. However, even at the preparatory stage of its convocation, the initiators faced a difficult task to find a compromise in a series of serious disagreements over the concepts, goals and objectives, format and participants of the first summit of the countries of Greater East Asia (ASEAN + 3) and "New Asia" represented by India, Australia and New Zealand. Ultimately, none of the summit participants managed to achieve the desired results. China was denied the right to host the next EAC, and India, Australia and New Zealand were unable to gain a foothold as influential players in the new structure. ASEAN was in the most advantageous position, as was evident from the final declaration. The document clearly stated that the creation of a new regional cooperation structure should be consistent with and reinforce the concept of the ASEAN Community, as stipulated in the Bali Declaration of Association Agreement. There is a fairly stable impression that because of the clash of interests of the main participants of the EAC, it risks being placed in the position of unproductive forums like APEC. According to some analysts, the Greater East Asia region now resembles not the field of multilateral cooperation at the beginning of the XXI century, but Europe at the beginning of the last century, torn apart by the contradictions of major powers.

The report by G. F. Murasheva (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) examines the nature of relations between China and Vietnam through the prism of geopolitics and ideology. In geopolitical terms, the dependence of relations between the two countries on the general world situation is shown. Vietnam, in particular, is forced to balance between two giants - China and the United States in defending its national interests. China's attitude towards Vietnam is primarily determined by the new foreign policy strategy and the concept of China's "peaceful rise", which presuppose the latter's leadership in the region. Since 1999, the leaders of the PRC and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam have been building their relations in the XXI century according to the formula "four good things": "good neighbors, friends, comrades, partners". China and Vietnam do not have any agreements defining the nature of their relations. At the same time, the joint declaration signed during Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to Hanoi in October-November 2005 refers to "common strategic interests". In 2005, China surpassed the United States to become Vietnam's main trading partner. By 2010, the two countries have set a goal to increase the volume of bilateral trade to 10 billion rubles. dol. Vietnam and China continue to be rivals in attracting foreign investment, as well as promoting their products to foreign markets. In the field of ideology, the PRC and Vietnam can be called (for lack of another term) allies, since in both countries the communist parties are in power, united by a common platform-Marxism-Leninism, which the CPC supplements in relation to the real situation with the "ideas of Mao Zedong", the theory of Deng Xiaoping and the " idea of triple representation "(since 2002 G.), and the CPV-ideas of Ho Chi Minh.

V. F. Vasiliev (Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences) spoke about the aggravation of relations within and outside ASEAN on the Burma issue and the complication of international relations around Myanmar. In 2004-2005, pressure increased on Myanmar to relinquish the post of President of ASEAN, which was assumed by the rules of alphabetical rotation in 2006. External (main) pressure was exerted by the United States and the EU, while internal pressure was exerted by ASEAN. The reason was that the Myanmar junta did not implement the promised democratic reforms and violated human rights. At the ASEAN Conference in July 2005, Myanmar relinquished its chairmanship under increasing pressure. It is experiencing considerable difficulties under the yoke of economic sanctions, especially from the United States. Seeking to break out of isolation and diversify its external contacts, Myanmar has established extensive economic ties and cooperation with India (2005) and, quite unexpectedly, with Russia (2006), not to mention long - term and close cooperation with China. As a result, while remaining an ASEAN member, Myanmar expands the circle of its partners and, according to V. F. Vasiliev, "sails away" from the United States and "docks" at the "other shore".

E. V. Koldunova (post-graduate student at MGIMO University) Russian Foreign Ministry) considered non-traditional aspects of security in Southeast Asia. A number of negative trends in the region, manifested in

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The growing interdependence and new security threats caused by the terrorist threat, the unresolved problems of ensuring the safety of navigation in the Strait of Malacca, the evolution of the HIV pandemic, and natural disasters indicate growing interdependence and new security threats caused either by old, latent problems in the region, or by various manifestations of globalization processes that require an adequate response at the regional level. However, often the national interests of individual countries in the region come into conflict with each other and become a factor of disintegration and an obstacle to a comprehensive solution of such problems.

A. A. Rogozhin's presentation "Southeast Asia in the Context of global and regional Energy Security", in which he assesses the growing threats to the energy security of the region's countries and the real possibilities of their reflection, opened the section devoted to the problems of the region's economy. The accelerated economic development of Southeast Asia determines the growth of energy consumption, especially oil and gas. According to the author's calculations, the average annual growth rate of energy consumption in Southeast Asia in 2005-2020 will be 3.3-3.9%, which is twice as high as in East Asia and one and a half times the average for all APEC countries. The volume of energy resources consumed by Southeast Asian countries will double during this period. Their own resources will not be able to meet the needs, and the dependence of Southeast Asian countries on imports is gradually increasing. The internal capacities of the Southeast Asian countries to counter import growth trends are already insufficient. To build and strengthen the capacity to balance supply and demand for basic energy sources - oil and gas - the Southeast Asian countries lack primarily financial resources and adequate technologies. In the medium term, the impact of Southeast Asia's oil and gas potential on the global oil and gas markets will remain almost modest and unchanged.

A. P. Muranova (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in her speech considered the problems of taxation in the ASEAN countries. In recent years, she noted, the tax burden on both legal entities and individuals has been decreasing. In all countries, nominal personal income tax rates are plotted on a progressive scale. High income earners are taxed at 37% of taxable income in Thailand, 35% in Indonesia, 32% in the Philippines, 30% in Myanmar, 29% in Malaysia, and 21% in Singapore. When taxing legal entities, the amount of profit is taken into account. In Indonesia, nominal income tax rates for non-oil companies range from 10% to 30%, and for oil companies-from 30% to 45%. Thailand sets rates of 15% and 25% for small firms, 30% for large firms, and 50% to 60% of taxable profits for oil firms. In Malaysia, the tax was 38% for oil companies and 28% for others. The tax system of the region's countries combines the fiscal and regulatory functions of taxes. Benefits are granted to private capital. These include tax holidays, reduced nominal tax rates, investment tax discounts, accelerated depreciation deductions, a double deduction from the costs of research and development projects, etc.P. An important phenomenon in the tax policy of the ASEAN countries was the reduction of import duties on goods imported from the countries of the region. This is done under the Agreement on General preferential tariffs as part of the ASEAN Free Trade Area Plan. By 2015, it is planned to abolish such duties.

K. A. Solovyova (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, PhD student) presented the report "Investments and economic development forecast of the Southeast Asian countries for 2006-2007". It notes that, despite the significant consequences of the 1997-1998 economic crisis, the countries of the region have shown stable growth over the past four years. In 2005 Their GDP grew by an average of 6%. The optimistic forecast for 2006-2007 is due to the rapid growth of domestic demand (in South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia) and external demand for export goods of these countries, primarily for electronics and electrical engineering. These factors have led to a significant increase in investment in the economies of the Southeast Asian countries, both domestic and foreign direct investment. According to the IMF experts, some threats to economic stability in the region remain. Rising prices for energy raw materials, especially in energy-intensive industries, can negatively affect the level of inflation and economic dynamics. The average GDP growth of the newly industrialized countries (South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia) was 5.4% in 2004, 6.3% in 2005, and 5% in 2007, according to the forecast for 2006. - 5.9% (according to IMF calculations). In 2003-2005. There was a revival in business investment and intensive use of fixed capital, thanks to strong external demand, low interest rates, and high investment rates.

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high liquidity, as well as an increase in the ratio of investment to GDP. The report noted the further accumulation of foreign currency reserves, estimated at over $ 1 trillion. USA.

In the report of A. A. Simonia (Institute of Military and Technical Cooperation of the Russian Academy of Sciences) "Military-technical cooperation of Russia with Southeast Asian countries in 2005", the problems of involving almost all the leading ASEAN countries in the sphere of military-technical cooperation with Russia were analyzed. In her opinion, further expansion of cooperation is possible due to the diversification of military products and services supplied. The situation with contracts scheduled for 2006 is considered. Some of them were postponed due to the reduction of the military budgets of the ASEAN countries due to the devastating tsunami and a number of other reasons. The author pays special attention to the prospects of the emerging expansion of military-technical cooperation between Russia and Myanmar.

Mikhail Kuritsyn (President of Geo-Spectrum Group), in the report "Southeast Asian countries and the investment boom in China", noted that contrary to expectations, the countries of the region in 2005 failed to take advantage of the ongoing investment boom in China to the desired extent. This is primarily due to the fact that these countries are not competitive enough in the very complex Chinese market. The absence of agreements on preferences for investors from Southeast Asia at the intergovernmental level in the Agreement on the formation of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone also hindered the development of relations between the countries of the region and China. Mikhail Kuritsyn cites the launch of the framework agreement on tariff concessions in foreign trade (July 20, 2005) as a positive factor. The issue of preferential investment treatment has not yet emerged from the negotiation stage. This situation is facilitated by the fact that investment in the Chinese economy by the countries of the region continued to be rather modest. By the beginning of 2005, about 5% of projects and capital investments were approved and 2.4% of investments were actually implemented. Even the region's largest and previously successful investor, Singapore, has experienced considerable difficulties in operating in the Chinese market, mainly due to pressure from competitive companies from Taiwan and Western countries.

The report by G. S. Shabalina (IB RAS) is dedicated to the anniversary of the devastating earthquake and tsunami disaster in the zone of increased seismic and volcanic activity in the Indian Ocean basin (December 2004).At that time, 12 countries were affected in SEVA, according to official data, more than 215 thousand people were killed (there are discrepancies in the estimates, especially the number of "missing persons"). The greatest damage was caused to Indonesia: in the province of Aceh in north Sumatra, 156 thousand people were killed or missing and about 1.8 million were killed. left homeless. In Thailand, according to official data, 5.4 thousand people died, in India - 16 thousand, in Sri Lanka-35 thousand. residents. In 2005 and early 2006, new natural disasters followed - strong earthquakes off the coast of Sumatra, in the Moluccas, floods and landslides in the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries, as well as the eruption of Mount Merapi in Java, which began in May 2006. Such natural disasters, G. S. Shabalina noted, significantly complicate the solution of the tasks set by the governments of Southeast Asian countries to eliminate poverty and destitution. The situation with the tourist infrastructure remains difficult. Due to tourism, many areas of Southeast Asia and South Asia exist. Meanwhile, in Thailand and Sri Lanka alone, the number of foreign tourists decreased by 50% in 2005. Phuket, other islands of Thailand and a number of neighboring countries, coastal areas are slowly recovering from the effects of the tsunami. The regional system of early warning of natural disasters and their prevention is still being developed. The Pacific tsunami warning system, which covers 23 countries located in the seismically active zone of the Pacific Ocean, is not yet fully developed and needs joint testing.

M. B. Efimova (MGIMO graduate student) in her report "Sea piracy in South-East Asia in 2005" highlighted some aspects of an extremely acute problem for Southeast Asian countries. After the devastating tsunami in Southeast Asia, the scale of maritime piracy dropped sharply, but in the first months of 2005 it began to grow again. Socio-economic factors played a significant role. As a result of the natural disaster, many residential buildings and other buildings, roads and bridges, electricity and water supply systems were destroyed. The sources of livelihood of people in the coastal zone of a number of Southeast Asian countries have sharply decreased, they have lost their meager property and the opportunity to engage in fishing, small businesses, and work in agricultural fields.

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businesses. For many desperate people, robbery, sea piracy became a way out of this situation.

The third block, dedicated to country issues, opened with a series of presentations on Indonesian topics.

Drugov's report "Indonesia in 2005" noted the further stabilization of the internal political situation and easing of ethnic and confessional conflicts. At the same time, the phenomenon of "creeping Islamization" is growing in those regions and districts where in some cases the enforcement of Sharia law is being introduced in conditions of insufficient efficiency of state power and all-consuming corruption. The Aceh settlement resulted in the Government being forced to allow Sharia law to be officially introduced there. And this can cause a dangerous demonstration effect. The Indonesian Government is seeking to boost international activity, mainly by developing political and military-technical cooperation with the United States and other countries, including Russia. The Government is wary of participating in international counterterrorism campaigns, fearing a negative reaction from Islamists inside the country.

G. V. Suchkov (student of the Eastern University) reviewed the main directions of the reform of the Indonesian armed forces in the first year and a half of the presidency of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, in particular the implementation of the provisions of the controversial Law No. 34 of 2004 on the Indonesian National Army. An important element of the transformation of the Armed Forces, according to the speaker, may be the creation of a vertical military management along the line of the Ministry of Defense - General Staff of the Armed Forces, but it is associated with certain risks. G. V. Suchkov also paid attention to the restoration of full-scale Indonesian-American cooperation, giving a new impetus to the peace process in Aceh province, and changing the commander-in-Chief of the National Army countries. According to the speaker, the restoration of the New Order regime is possible in one form or another in modern Indonesia.

M. O. Kulikova (IB RAS) compared the results of the first year of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's rule with those of his predecessor Megawati Sukarnoputri. The factors that influenced the election of both presidents are largely similar: inflated expectations of Indonesian voters, the difficult socio-political situation in the country. The new president has to deal with the same problems as Megawati Sukarnoputri-unemployment, rising inflation, repayment of external debt, and stabilization of the economy. Yudhoyono does not have the support of his own party, and there is no unity in the government. The economic situation in the country has not improved, and the sharp rise in fuel prices on the domestic market has hit the poor hardest. To address key economic challenges, President Yudhoyono has made changes to the Cabinet. World experts positively assess the actions of the Indonesian government. In their opinion, they are designed for the future. Public sentiment (according to opinion polls) is also comparable for the first years of both presidents ' rule. Despite the fact that most of the population is dissatisfied with the government's actions and the overall economic situation (more than 60%), the personal popularity rating of both Megawati Sukarnoputri and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono remains high. Thus, after 18 months of rule by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, 74.8% of Indonesians support him.

E. A. Cherepneva (IB RAS) reviewed the relationship of the Indonesian Orthodox Church (CPI) to Muslims. Currently, the number of Orthodox Indonesians is slightly more than 2 thousand people; Muslims - more than 220 million. Archimandrite Daniel (Dvi Biantoro), the founder and head of the CPI, an Orthodox theologian and theorist, speaks about the need to maintain good relations with Muslims in everyday practice. But you need to be firm in your faith, and there can be no compromise here. In general, E. A. Cherepneva believes that Archimandrite Daniel's views fully fit into the framework of the modern attitude of Christianity to Islam and the evolution of this attitude - dialogue, discussion, polemics.

In her speech "Malaysia: the Economic Policy of the Government of Abdullah Badawi", L. F. Pakhomova (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) focused on the peculiarities of adjusting the internal economic policy pursued by the administration of Abdullah Badawi. The ninth development plan (2006-2010) was adopted. The Government's main efforts are focused on the development of education, for which a fifth of the budget is allocated, as well as on reducing the income gap between different groups of the population. A specific feature of the economic and social policy is the introduction of a number of provisions of Islam in various spheres of socio-economic life of society, in particular in the social sphere. -

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investment in banking activities. In the revised strategy, Malaysia's achievement of fully developed state status by 2020 is declared a "National Mission". An important new moment in strengthening Malaysia's position in the Islamic world is the accreditation of the Council of Islamic Financial Institutions in Kuala Lumpur, which included (as of 2006) 16 countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, the United Arab Emirates, and Pakistan. According to L. F. Pakhomova, the Islamic capital market is becoming an important component of the Malaysian capital market.

M. N. Gusev (IB RAS) reviewed the political and economic situation in Malaysia in 2005. In the internal policy of the new leadership, the concentration of all power powers in the hands of Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, the emergence from the shadow of his predecessor Mahathir Mohamad, and the softening of the previous, sometimes harsh course towards "Islamization of the country according to the Malaysian version" are observed, which could not but aggravate many problems of inter-community relations, which for a long time were under a In the field of economics, a return to the "new economic policy" (NEP) is being implemented, and increased attention is being paid to agriculture. The economic course is largely dictated by the need to regulate complex interethnic and interfaith relations.

In her report on the Philippine economy in 2005, O. G. Baryshnikova (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) identified important factors that hindered the implementation of the socio-economic goals of the Philippine economic development plan for 2004-2010. - strengthening the fight against poverty and creating favorable living conditions for the population. Economic reform aimed at accelerating economic growth was hindered in an unfavorable political environment by corruption among all layers of the bureaucracy, the lack of professionalism of many officials and their poor managerial training, as well as slow consideration in Congress of bills to stimulate economic growth, primarily the production of technological products. Factors such as inflation, insufficient investment in industry, high unemployment, a state budget deficit, a negative trade balance, an increase in the cost of exported petroleum products, large external and internal debts of the state, etc. continued to stand in the way of reconstruction of the production structure. In many important economic indicators, the Philippines remained in the last or penultimate place among the five most developed countries in Southeast Asia (ASEAN-5) in 2005.

In the report by Yu. O. Levtonova (IB RAS) Political situation in the Philippines under the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences Arroyo was seen as a demonstration of the increasingly obvious degradation of the Philippine model of liberal democracy. In 2005-early 2006, the country was in a state of permanent political instability and uncertainty, sometimes facing a crisis of power. Mass anti-government demonstrations in the stereotypical form of the " parliament of the streets "or the so-called" People Power " revolutions (June - September 2005) and the organization of anti - presidential plots and military putschs (December 2005-January 2006) forced Arroyo to introduce a state of emergency in the country for a short time (24.02.2006-3.03.2006). This measure helped her eliminate the most dangerous opponents, but did not lead to improvement of the situation. The revival of Philippine foreign policy, in particular a number of initiatives by Arroyo to expand cooperation with the Russian Federation, and the active participation of the Philippines in regional integration projects do not have a positive impact on the domestic situation. There is no possibility of a breakthrough in economic modernization that can stop the destabilization. Therefore, the question is whether Mr. Arroyo will be able to stay in power until the end of the presidential term in 2010.

In her speech "Singapore in 2005", E. M. Gurevich (Institute of Foreign Policy of the Russian Academy of Sciences) focused on the trends in Singapore's foreign policy after Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong came to the leadership of the country. In particular, she considered a new stage in the development of Singapore-China relations. With China's expansion in the Southeast Asian region, Singapore - the largest investor and trading partner of the PRC-is seeking to maximize the benefits of this cooperation, hoping to find in China a potential defender, a kind of guarantor of its security in the event of increased pressure from its Malay-Indonesian neighbors. The rapid development of relations between China and Singapore has also had an impact on certain aspects of the internal political life of the city-state. Recently, the country has launched a campaign to develop programs for in-depth study of the Chinese language, history, traditions, and modern development.-

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tia of China. According to E. M. Gurevich, it would be a mistake to consider the implementation of such a course as a departure of the country's leadership from the general line of its policy aimed at strengthening Singapore's identity on a multinational basis, in the direction of emphasizing the "Sinification" of Singapore (taking into account the ethno-national composition of its population). This could lead to opposition from ethnic minorities in Singapore, as well as Malays in Malaysia and Indonesia. At the same time, we should not forget that China is becoming a strong competitor to Singapore in attracting foreign investment, and for the Singapore leadership, the shift in emphasis in domestic policy is more a matter of economic feasibility. Singapore remains committed to maintaining and strengthening the US position in Southeast Asia to maintain the balance of power and stability in the region.

M. G. Osipova (IB RAS) reviewed the trends and prospects of Russian-Singapore cooperation. Since 2005, there has been some revival of Russian-Singaporean relations in the economic sphere. In October 2005, the "father of the Singapore miracle" Lee Kuan Yew paid an official visit to Russia. At the end of the trip, he said: "The current generation of Russian businessmen is ready to cooperate in the foreign market" and called on Singaporean businessmen to expand contacts with the Russian business community. In March 2006, the first Russian-Singapore forum "The Real Image of Russia"was held in Singapore. It was attended by about 250 representatives of government circles and business elites of the two countries. The Russian delegation was headed by the head of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of the Russian Federation G. O. Gref, who dedicated his report to the creation of special economic zones (SEZs) of Russia. The forum focused on developing business relations and providing opportunities for investment in the Russian economy. Representatives of Tatarstan and the Tomsk Region got acquainted with the projects for the development of regional SEZs. By the end of 2005 There were six SEZs in Russia - two industrial-production ones (Lipetsk region and Yelabuga in Tatarstan) and four technical-implementation ones (Saint Petersburg, Dubna, Zelenograd and Tomsk). Consideration of other regional applications continued. All this was offered to the attention of the Singapore business. According to Ms Osipova, one of the promising areas of bilateral cooperation is cooperation in the field of science and education. However, to date, cooperation in this area is hindered by the lack of a coordinated regulatory framework for the protection of intellectual property in Russia and a number of organizational and technical problems.

V. A. Dolnikova (ISAA at Moscow State University) described the features of the democratization process in modern Thailand. She noted that the intensification of the political struggle in Thailand in late 2005 and early 2006 and mass public protests against the authoritarian tendencies manifested in the activities of the Thaksin Chinnawat Government confirm the stability of the democratic processes that developed in Thailand during the 1980s and 1990s. The most active part in the ongoing struggle is shown by party and social groups that have played a crucial role in establishing the constitutional system and parliamentary institutions. They are the ones who enjoy the greatest support from the middle strata of the urban population and other social groups formed under the influence of intensive modernization processes taking place in the economic and political life of Thai society. According to V. A. Dolnikova, at the present stage, the irreversibility of the democratic changes that have taken place in society has become obvious: supporters of the military-bureaucratic elite and the authoritarian regime have been removed from political power. The country retains the foundations of the constitutional system and parliamentary institutions. This does not exclude the possibility of new difficulties and contradictions in the further socio-political evolution of Thai society.

In her speech, E. A. Fomicheva (IB RAS) focused on the political crisis that broke out in Thailand at the end of 2005 and led to the dissolution of Parliament and new early parliamentary elections. As a result of the election, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's Thai Rak Thai party won an impressive victory again, for the third time. Thus, there is a paradoxical situation when the results of national elections sharply diverge from the political preferences of the capital. The political crisis has not yet been resolved. The question of who will lead the country's new government remains open. The author analyzed the causes of the crisis, pointing out a number of socio-political contradictions that caused it. First of all, there is a deep gap in basic interests between the modernized capital and the traditional rural periphery, between the rich and the poor.-

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Stu. The crisis is an obvious manifestation of the struggle between democratic and authoritarian tendencies. There is also a conflict of political elites, as well as the interests of various business groups.

In her report "Vietnam's economy in 2005", G. V. Birina (Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences) noted that despite a number of problems of natural origin (a series of hurricanes, floods, "bird flu") and others that the country faced in 2005, The achieved GDP growth rate was 8.4%, which is the highest in the last nine years of economic development. The legal framework is being developed to create favorable conditions for the development of all sectors of the economy. In 2005, the National Assembly adopted two fundamental laws: the Unified Enterprise Law and the Investment Law. According to experts of the Asian Development Bank, the adoption of these laws will contribute to the growth of both domestic and foreign investment. G. V. Birina also noted that although Vietnam failed to implement the planned plan to join the WTO in 2005, efforts in this direction will continue and the country will join the WTO in the next two years. Special attention, in her opinion, deserves discussions in the Vietnamese ruling elite regarding the further definition of economic development paths.: choose between macroeconomic stability and rapid economic growth.

A. A. Smirnova (MGIMO University) Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, PhD student) presented the report "Economic assistance as a means of promoting the expansion of private capital in Vietnam". The country remains in dire need of capital investment, and external economic assistance has consistently played an important role in its socio-economic development. In 2005, the amount of economic assistance received by the country exceeded $ 1.5 billion, an increase of almost 1.6 times compared to 2001. Since the beginning of 2006, it has financed 17% of total public investment and 11% of public expenditure has been spent on social development. Since 2002, Vietnam has been provided with a few exceptions by the industrialized countries of the West and East, which account for at least 60-70% of its total volume. They focus on creating favorable conditions for private companies to operate, especially with the participation of foreign capital. In the last five years, this is primarily infrastructure - industrial, transport, energy, and social. An analysis of the basic parameters of economic assistance to Vietnam suggests that it plays a generally positive role for the country's socio-economic development, facilitating the inflow of foreign investment. With this in mind, the Vietnamese Government planned to attract investment in the country in 2001-2010. economic assistance of at least $ 10.9 billion. However, the events of 2005 have shown that the process of using foreign economic assistance is very complicated by a number of negative socio-political phenomena, primarily corruption in certain echelons of power, the fight against which has become an integral part of the political course of the Vietnamese leadership.

V. M. Mazyrin (ISAA at Moscow State University) will speak on "Vietnam between globalization and regionalism". Hanoi is committed to participating in both processes in order to support economic growth and internal stability. The pragmatic course, devoid of ideological coloring, is still paying great dividends: Vietnam has the highest rates of economic recovery in Southeast Asia and the most stable political situation. However, according to V. Mazyrin, the policy of openness and market reforms leads to a gradual loss of political independence and economic sovereignty, which contradicts the traditions of local statehood. Vietnam's participation in the globalization process is reflected in the expansion of cooperation primarily with the United States and its intention to join the WTO. On the one hand, the Vietnamese leadership is striving for full integration into the world economy, and on the other hand, it is trying to prevent the "harmful" political influence of the West. This implies political pluralism, multiparty system, and liberal democracy in general, which, according to Hanoi, are aimed at "peaceful transformation of the regime", the implementation of another "color revolution", i.e. the removal of the CPV from power. Therefore, Hanoi relied on regionalism as a means of mitigating the effects of globalization and ensuring a multipolar external orientation. Based on its successful work within the ASEAN framework, Vietnam has shifted its focus to the integration process in Greater East Asia. As a confirmation, examples of rapprochement with China and support for the creation of the EAC are given. V. M. Mazyrin offers his own formula for Hanoi's foreign policy-balancing and "multiple" insurance against the negative consequences of globalization

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(the "matryoshka doll" principle) through participation in multi-level integration processes (from local and sub-regional to regional and trans-regional formats).

A. L. Sokolov (Institute of Foreign Policy of the Russian Academy of Sciences) will speak on "The American vector of Vietnam's Foreign Policy". In the more than 10-year period since the establishment of diplomatic relations between Vietnam and the United States (1995), many areas of Vietnamese-American relations have developed positive trends. Vietnam-US relations now cover politics, economy, security, military affairs, science and technology, culture, and education. Direct flights between Vietnam and the United States have been restored after a 30-year hiatus. The main trend of Vietnam-US relations at the present stage is the development and expansion of cooperation in the direction of long-term stability. The number of delegations of various levels is constantly growing, and cooperation in the economic field has become noticeably more active and continues to develop, which has resulted in the signing of a number of intergovernmental agreements and treaties. In 2004, bilateral trade reached $ 6.4 billion, with total U.S. direct investment in Vietnam amounting to $ 1.3 billion. Recently, the American company Intel Corporation decided to invest $ 650 million. in the construction of a factory for the production of high-tech products in Ho Chi Minh City. Vietnam's Prime Minister Phan Van Khai's official visit to the United States in June 2005 played an important role in the development of Vietnam-US relations. Following the visit, a joint statement was issued expressing the common desire of the two countries to establish "constructive partnership relations" and identifying the main areas of cooperation. US President George W. Bush has expressed support for Vietnam's accession to the WTO and will visit Hanoi in late 2006 to attend the APEC Leaders ' Meeting.

Dmitry Pivovarov (Russian Foreign Ministry) spoke about Vietnam's participation in the activities of major UN agencies in 2005. Continuing its policy of intensifying its activities within the UN, Vietnam has put forward its candidacy for a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council for the period from 2008 to 2009. To achieve this goal, Vietnam regularly conducts consultations and expands its activities within the UN framework in almost all areas. Vietnam is a member of 21 UN specialized agencies. The representative of Vietnam was Vice-President of the UN General Assembly in 1997, 2000 and 2003. At the 60th session of the UN General Assembly, Vietnam spoke in favor of early reform of the UN, which should begin with increasing the ability of small countries to influence decision-making within the Organization, and with the reform of the UN Security Council - with an increase in the number of as well as non-permanent members of the Security Council. Vietnam once again expressed its support for the candidacies of India, Japan and Germany as new permanent members of the UN Security Council, as well as Brazil, at the 60th session of the UN, and called on industrialized countries to provide funds on a voluntary basis.He also called on the UN to promote the elimination of various trade barriers and Vietnam's accession to the WTO.

In her speech, S. I. Ioanesyan (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) noted that in 2005 the overall socio-economic and political situation in the Lao PDR was stable. This was confirmed by the significant growth of the national economy, the signing of a peace agreement between the Government and the Khmong opposition, and the increased investment and foreign trade activity of Laos. The results of the implementation of the country's five - year development plan (2001-2005) were summed up. Indicative tasks for the next five-year period were being prepared based on the decisions of the VIII Congress of the NPLP (2006). The republic celebrated the 30th anniversary of its existence, the 50th anniversary of the NRPL, as well as the 85th anniversary of the birth of its founder and permanent leader, the first Chairman of the Government of the Lao PDR, Keison Fomvihan. Special attention was paid to the important and difficult problems being solved by the leadership of the Lao PDR, whose main task is to get rid of the status of the poorest country in the world, and to the new challenges of our time generated by the globalization processes.

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