Libmonster ID: JP-1258


Candidate of Historical Sciences

Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Keywords: Japan, South Korea, hydrocarbons, Russian exports, LNG, oil

Russian oil and gas exports gradually began to shift from Western markets to Asian ones in the face of complicated relations with European countries. At the same time, China has become Russia's main partner. However, a significant share of Russian hydrocarbon exports also goes to Japan and South Korea. The article examines the prospects for increasing supplies to these countries in the current unfavorable market conditions.

The Persian Gulf countries 'dumping policy on energy supplies to world markets in order to compete with non-OPEC countries, the "shale revolution", the slowing growth of the Chinese economy, the lifting of sanctions against Iran and the simultaneous deterioration of its relations with Saudi Arabia, which makes it impossible for these countries to agree among themselves on limiting oil production - all this this led to a strong destabilization of commodity markets and a drop in oil prices to record lows.

The Russian economy, which is focused on exporting its own raw materials and was previously weakened by Western sanctions, 1 felt all these cataclysms to the full. The plunging exchange rate of the ruble indicates this.

Since, in our opinion, Russia will not be able to get away from the commodity economy in the coming decades, we have to look for ways to mitigate the situation within the existing conditions. One option is to strengthen our position in the traditional markets for our hydrocarbon products and, if possible, enter new ones.


The eastern direction of energy supplies has become increasingly important for Russia in recent years. The volume of oil exports to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region in 2015 reached 53.44 million tons, which is comparable to supplies via the Druzhba pipeline to some non-CIS countries - Germany, Poland,Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia - which amounted to 53.87 million tons. 2

It is significant that due to the reorientation of Russian hydrocarbon flows to the East, logistics projects planned by Russian companies in Europe are being curtailed. For example, in July 2015, it was announced that the contract with the largest hub in Western Europe - the port of Rotterdam - for the construction of a Russian oil transshipment terminal was terminated. The main reason was that Russian oil companies refused to guarantee the loading of this terminal.

In Asia, China is the main consumer of Russian oil. And here Russia is successfully competing with other oil suppliers, primarily with Saudi Arabia and Angola. China and Russia have signed several major long-term agreements that involve a gradual increase in oil supplies. In 2015, the total export of Russian oil to China, according to the Customs Administration of the People's Republic of China, amounted to 42.43 million tons, an increase of 28.2% 3. (According to the Russian customs, the export of crude oil to the People's Republic of China in 2015 amounted to 38.57 million tons, and together with petroleum products-45.7 million tons 4.) As for Russian gas, it is not yet supplied to China. The start of gas supplies should occur after 2020, when the main gas pipelines will be laid.

Other major consumers of Russian oil in the eastern direction are Japan and South Korea. In 2014, exports of oil and petroleum products to Japan from Russia amounted to 14.4 million tons, 5 or 7.3% of the total oil consumption in this country (196.8 million tons)6. In 2014, 16.95 million tons of oil and petroleum products were delivered to South Korea (see Table 1).7

The publication was prepared within the framework of the research project No. 15-37-11129 (Research of socio-cultural, environmental and technological aspects of the prospects of energy resources export from Russia) supported by the Russian State Scientific Foundation.

page 12

Table 1

Russian oil and oil products exports to Japan and South Korea (kt)



South Korea


Crude oil

Petroleum products


Crude oil

Petroleum products
















Source: TSVT documents // Federal Customs Service. Foreign trade statistics

However, the main suppliers of oil and petroleum products to these countries are the states of the Middle East. They accounted for about 82% of Japanese oil imports in 2015. Nevertheless, Russian supplies to Japan, as well as to South Korea, are gradually increasing. In 2015, as shown in Table 1, they grew by 12.5% and 16.9%, respectively, in relation to the indicators of 2014.

In general, Russian oil supplies to Japan are small, and there are few opportunities to significantly increase them, despite the presence of some advantages. According to a report by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, the country is gradually reducing oil purchases due to the demographic decline and the introduction of new energy-saving technologies. In 2015, the country imported a total of 195.5 million tons of oil, the smallest volume since 1988.8 and 2.3% lower than in 2014. And according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economy of Japan, purchases of gasoline and diesel fuel in the period to March 2020 will be reduced by 1.3% annually.9

Thus, the possibility of expanding our oil exports can be attributed not to an increase in Japan's energy needs, but to successful competition with traditional suppliers for this market. As the collapse in oil prices suggests, the fight will be tough. Moreover, after the lifting of sanctions on January 16, 2016, Iran joined the fight for the European and Japanese markets. And it is already actively pushing the Gulf states out of the Japanese oil market. From December 2015 to mid-February 2016, Iranian oil sales to Japan increased by 34% .10

The National Iranian Oil Company (NINK) aims to get 10% of the Japanese import market of oil, or approximately 350 thousand barrels per day11. If this goal is achieved, Iran will become the third largest exporter for Japan. Japan is quite satisfied with this, since the quality of Iranian oil meets the technological needs of Japanese refineries to the greatest extent.

The only advantage of Russian oil is the presence of a short transport shoulder. Oil from the Sakhalin shelf reaches Japan in 3-4 days, while transportation of oil from the Middle East takes about three weeks. The problem is that at the moment Russia does not have sufficient technical capabilities to significantly increase exports to this country.

First, the capacity of ports where hydrocarbons are delivered by tankers to Japan, South Korea, China, Singapore and other countries has its own limitations. For example, even today, Russian companies working in these areas are seriously competing for quotas that give access to the Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean (ESPO) oil pipeline, the final destination of which is the port of Kozmino on the Pacific coast of Russia.

The port has a capacity of 31 million tons of oil per year. In 2015, it was already loaded by 98% (30.4 million tons). It is planned that the remaining free volumes will be filled with oil intended mainly for China. China's share in shipments via the port of Kozmino is growing, while the share of other countries is decreasing. For example, if in 2014 the bulk of oil went through this port to Japan, today Japan is already in second place in terms of these indicators.

The main recipients of oil shipped through the port of Kozmino in 2015 were: China - 14.7 million tons (48.3%), Japan - 8.7 million tons (28.7%), South Korea - 3.2 million tons (10.5%). 0.7 million tons (2.3%) were shipped to Singapore, 0.6 million tons (1.9%) to the Philippines, 0.5 million tons (1.6%) to Thailand, 0.3 million tons (1%) to Taiwan, and 0.2 million tons (0.8%) to Malaysia.

page 13

Kozmino became Vietnam - 0.1 million tons (0.3%)", - representatives of"Transneft" noted 12.

The port of Prigorodnoye, located in the south of Sakhalin Island and handling oil and gas of the Sakhalin-2 project, has already exhausted its capacity reserves. 13 In 2014, 5.35 million tons of oil were shipped through this port. The construction of another stage is still only in the plans. The Sakhalin-2 project involves Japanese companies - Minuy and Mitsubishi. They own, respectively, 12.5% and 10% of the shares of Sakhalin Energy Investment Company ("Sakhalin Energy"), which is the operator of the Sakhalin-2 project*.

Secondly, there is no sufficiently extensive network of pipelines to deliver oil and gas from various fields to various ports. For example, the port of De Castries is focused exclusively on receiving oil and gas from the Sakhalin-1 project. The port is connected by a 226-kilometer pipeline to the Chayvo, Odoptu and Arkutun-Dagi fields on the north-eastern shelf of Sakhalin in the Sea of Okhotsk**.

The export terminal of the port of De Castries, which has a capacity of 12 million tons per year, is owned by the Sakhalin-1 project consortium, in which Rosneft owns only 20%. The project operator is Exxon Neftegaz Limited (30%). The project also includes the Indian Oil and Gas Corporation (ONGC) (20%) and the Japanese Sodeko Group (30%), which includes the corporations "Japan Petroleum", "Itochu" and "Marubeni".

Since there are Japanese representatives among the participants of the Sakhalin-1 project-the SODECO consortium, which owns a significant share of this project, it is logical to assume that a significant flow of oil through the port of De Kastri can be sent to Japan. However, it will be not only Russian supplies, but also supplies from the Japanese consortium, which is no longer suitable for the definition of "Russian export".

Another problem of Russian export of hydrocarbons to the east concerns ownership rights to pipelines and port terminals. The consortia of the Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 projects have almost exclusive rights to use the ports of De Kastri and Prigorodnoye, respectively, as well as the pipelines connected to them, without allowing other exporters to access them.

South Korea, in the current oil and gas markets, is increasing the purchase of energy resources from Russia, but also actively buys them from other countries. Taking advantage of the global drop in prices, Korea has increased its oil imports to record levels. According to the Customs Service of the Republic of Korea, in 2015, oil imports to this country increased by 10.6% - to 137.8 million KT14, becoming the highest in the 20-year period since 1995. The main suppliers were Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

South Korea also plans to buy significant volumes of oil from Iran. Oil supplies from Iran to South Korea did not stop even during the era of sanctions, and as soon as the sanctions were lifted, agreements were immediately reached to increase purchases.


Among the relatively large consumers of Russian gas in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region (APR) today, only Japan can be named. Much smaller volumes are bought by South Korea. Russian gas is delivered to these countries by tankers in liquefied form (LNG).

So far, Russia has the only plant for the production of liquefied natural gas with a capacity of 9.8 million tons of LNG per year. The volume of liquefied gas production in 2015 was 10.8 million tons (14.9 billion cubic meters of gas).15. About 65% of production is contracted by Japan's four largest electricity generating companies and five gas companies under long-term agreements lasting more than 20 years.16 In addition to Japan, liquefied natural gas from the plant is transported to South Korea, China, Taiwan and Thailand.

In 2014, Japan purchased 11.5 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia, and South Korea - 2.6 billion cubic meters of gas** * (see Table 2).

Japan does not have its own gas, and it buys all its gas abroad. In 2014, the country's gas consumption amounted to 112.5 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 1 billion cubic meters compared to the previous two years. However, in general, over the past 5 years, gas consumption in this country has consistently exceeded 100 billion cubic meters. m per year.

* Sakhalin Energy was established in 1994 to develop the Piltun-Astokhskoye oil and Lunskoye gas fields in the Sea of Okhotsk on the shelf of the island of Okhotsk. Sakhalin. The shareholders of this company are also Gazprom (50% plus one share of the company) and Shell ( 27.5% of the shares). author's note).

** The reserves of these fields are estimated at 307 million tons of oil and 485 billion cubic meters of gas.

*** Russia produces about 600 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually. It consumes just over 400 billion of them. The rest goes to export, first of all, to Europe: in 2014, 147.7 billion cubic meters of gas were delivered, and about 40 billion more - to Belarus, Ukraine and some other former Soviet republics.

page 14

Table 2

Structure of gas imports in Japan and South Korea in 2014 (bcm)



South Korea




























Источник: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2015.

Table 3

Existing and planned LNG plants in Russia



Installed capacity, mln tons

Estimated launch year

Yamal LNG




Vladivostok LNG



2018 (?)

Baltic LNG




Pechora LNG

Rosneft, Alltech


2018 (?)

Far Eastern LNG

Rosneft, Exxon


2020 (?)

At the same time, the volume of gas purchases is slightly higher than the capacity of domestic consumption*.

For gas suppliers, Japan is considered a premium buyer, as gas purchase prices here are traditionally much higher than in other markets. Therefore, it would be beneficial for Russia to increase its gas exports to Japan, especially when European exports are under threat.

However, does Russia have such opportunities, both internal and determined by external circumstances?


According to BP, global LNG exports in 2014 amounted to 333.3 billion cubic meters (241.5 million tons)17, although the existing capacity of the plants already exceeds 400 billion cubic meters (290 million tons)18. Russia's share in world exports is small. As already noted, Russia produces only 14.9 billion cubic meters of gas (10.8 million tons).

The first and so far only liquefied natural gas plant in Russia started operating in 2009. Fuel is supplied to the plant from Sakhalin and from near Vladivostok.

There are also projects of other plants for the production of liquefied gas: Yamal CIS led by NOVATEK, Vladivostok LNG and Baltic LNG developed by Gazprom, Pechora LNG and Far Eastern LNG developed by Rosneft (see Table 3).

Before the crisis caused by sanctions and falling prices for hydrocarbons, it was assumed that by 2020 Russia will produce more than 40 million tons of LNG annually. However, today it is already clear that in the current crisis, some projects will have to be abandoned. Gazprom has already made it clear that instead of building Vladivostok LNG, with an estimated capacity of up to 15 million tons per year, it will build only the third stage of the Sakhalin Energy plant, with a capacity of 5 million tons of LNG per year (as a result, the capacity of the existing plant will increase to 15 million tons of LNG per year). The named dates are 2021.

The Yamal LNG project has high chances of implementation. The project provides for the annual production of about 16.5 million tons of liquefied natural gas and up to 1.2 million tons of gas condensate for delivery to the markets of the Asia-Pacific region and Europe. It is implemented by NOVATEK (60%), Total (20%) and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) (20%). Expected,

* Japan purchased 119 billion cubic meters of gas in 2013, 120.6 billion cubic meters in 2014, and 115 billion cubic meters in 2015.

page 15

that, despite concerns about funding due to Western sanctions against Russia, its first production line at 5.5 million tons per year will be launched in 2017.

The second and third production lines of the Yamal CIS plant will start operating in 2018 and 2019, respectively 19. For this project, the first of 16 ice-class tankers designed to transport liquefied natural gas from Siberia to Europe and Asia has already been built and launched. LNG transportation from Yamal to the Asian region will be carried out by the Northern Sea Route during summer navigation.

Another project that has more or less high chances of implementation is Pechora LNG, owned by Rosneft and Alltech Group. This plant, as well as the projects mentioned above, will be focused on the markets of the Asia-Pacific region. The first stage is expected to produce 2.6 million tons of LNG.

This project has several problems. In addition to low prices for raw materials, which complicate obtaining lucrative contracts, as well as Rosneft falling under Western sanctions, the project cannot yet get permission from Russian structures to export its own products. So far, the estimated launch date of the plant is 2018. Obviously, they will be reviewed.

Not everything is clear either with the Far Eastern LNG plant, which is planned to liquefy gas from the Sakhalin-1 project. The design capacity of the first stage of the plant will be 5 million tons of LNG annually, and, according to previously established plans, the first line of the enterprise was to be launched in 2018-2019. However, even the place of its construction has not yet been definitively determined.


In 2013-2015, Russia's Gazprom and Japan's TokyoGas discussed the possibility of laying a gas pipeline from Sakhalin to central Japan. First of all, Japan was interested in this gas pipeline, since, according to Japanese experts, pipeline gas would be half the price of Russian LNG currently purchased.

However, it did not come to signing any agreements. Alexey Miller, head of Gazprom, said: "If we are talking about pipeline gas supplies for export from the Russian Far East, then China is undoubtedly our priority among the largest gas consumers. We are not currently working on other options. " 20

Various options for laying a gas pipeline to South Korea also do not have a chance to be implemented in the near future.

It is certainly more profitable for Russia to sell LNG in the eastern direction. Here, prices for liquefied natural gas are traditionally much higher than in European markets. That is why almost all proposed Russian LNG plants are focused on the markets of the Asia-Pacific region. However, it is projected that by the time several LNG plants are finally built in Russia, the global market will already be oversupplied.21

According to forecasts of the International Energy Agency (USA), " by 2020, the global volume of operating LNG export capacity will increase by 164 billion cubic meters (119 million tons), i.e. by 40% compared to the current level. At the same time, Australia will account for 44% of the new capacity, and by the end of the decade it will become the largest LNG exporter. It will be followed by Qatar, and the United States, whose capacity will increase by 35%, will become the third largest exporter. " 22

Thus, in addition to Russia, Australia, Qatar, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Nigeria and other countries, including the United States, are competing for the Japanese and South Korean LNG markets. Iran has also joined the fight.

Under the current circumstances, Russia looks like an outsider. It is unlikely to secure a significant share of the LNG market in Asia. Adding to all this is the fact that Japan's demand for liquefied natural gas will decrease due to the decision to deconservate its nuclear reactors. 24 of the 48 power units shut down after the Fukushima tragedy in 2011 are ready to restart.

Already in 2015, Japanese LNG purchases fell by 3.9% - from 88.5 million tons in 2014 to 85 million tons in 2015.2 Interestingly, the decline in liquefied gas imports occurred in other Southeast Asian countries: in South Korea-by 9.9%; in China-by 0.9%. Only Taiwan showed a 7.9% increase in imports.

The projected future increase in natural gas purchases by Japan can only be attributed to the country's largest gas market reform, which involves its liberalization from 2016 to the end of 2018. The goal of the reform is to achieve a balance of different types of energy in the country's "energy portfolio" by 2030. The largest share of this portfolio will be allocated to natural gas. It is estimated by the head of the Japanese Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Takayuki Ueda, to be 27%. The rest is renewable energy sources

page 16

(25%), nuclear power (20-25%), hard coal (26%) 24.

The decrease in total LNG purchases by South Korea from 37.2 million tons in 2014 to 33.5 million tons in 2015 was also due to a decrease in demand for electricity production (-8.9%) and a decrease in urban gas demand (-4.8%) 25. This was supported by increased coal consumption and increased nuclear power generation.

The overall picture in the gas sector in Japan and South Korea is not in favor of Russian exports, and we can hardly hope that the situation will change for the better for us.


In addition to the global political situation, technical problems and the dictates of market conditions, the situation with Russian energy exports to the east is somewhat influenced by socio-cultural and socio-political aspects - the preferences of certain countries (societies) in choosing partners based on historically established cultural ties and political relations. So, despite the present element of competition, Russia prefers to choose China as its main regional partner, while Japan traditionally follows in the wake of American policy, which does not allow Russian-Japanese economic ties to develop sufficiently.

In particular, Japan has joined Western sanctions against Russia, albeit in a milder form. In addition, despite all the efforts of Russian companies to attract Japanese partners to Russian projects, including resource extraction, there are practically no Japanese investments in Russia, but a significant number of them participate in the capital of American companies producing shale oil and gas. Of course, the development of Russian-Japanese relations is also influenced by the peace treaty that has not yet been concluded and the unresolved dispute over the islands. Both countries are afraid of losing face by making concessions. And this is inherent in the culture of peoples.

A traditionally good partnership between Russia and South Korea depends, among other things, on the relations of the Republic of Korea with its northern neighbor on the peninsula. In particular, this applies to joint Russian-South Korean projects in the energy sector.

For more than 10 years, the construction of a gas pipeline from Vladivostok to South Korea via North Korea has been discussed. This is the shortest of all the proposed routes in this direction. Its length could be 1,1 thousand km. Of these, 700 km should pass through North Korea. The estimated cost of constructing a section of the gas pipeline through the territory of the DPRK is $2.5 billion 26.

In order to promote this project, Russia even forgave North Korea a $10 billion debt dating back to Soviet times in 2012.27 However, the construction of the pipeline has not yet begun, including due to periodically increasing tensions between the countries of the Korean Peninsula. So the deterioration of relations between the DPRK and the Republic of Korea, one way or another, affects business ties with Russia.

In the gas sector, we would be less dependent on this topic if we had sufficient LNG production capacity. Sea shipments eliminate the need to take into account the socio-cultural and socio-political features of interaction between the two Koreas. And, in addition, South Korea is the largest consumer of liquefied natural gas after Japan. However, in this field, Russia has already lost out in the competition with other LNG exporters.

In general, Russia is not a leading partner for South Korea, and, given the available options, Korea's choice of Russian proposals is not obvious. The same can be said about Russian preferences: today, Russian oil and gas companies are betting on China.


The reorientation of Russian oil and gas exports from western to eastern destinations is mainly due to the increase in our share in the Chinese market. In Japan and South Korea, Russia is also still able to gradually increase its hydrocarbon exports, but the opportunities for such growth are small.

In the gas sector, Russian companies are primarily limited by the lack of a sufficient number of operating LNG plants. The construction of the already planned gas liquefaction facilities is greatly hindered by falling energy prices and a significant narrowing of the range of opportunities for our companies to attract loans and purchase the necessary equipment due to anti-Russian sanctions.

Moreover, by the time additional LNG plants are built in Russia, the global market will already be oversupplied. We also have to take into account that the demand for gas in Japan, as well as in South Korea, is likely to decrease due to the return to nuclear power, the active introduction of alternative technologies based on renewable energy sources, etc.

page 17

reduce the energy intensity of the economy as a whole.

It is also worth paying attention to the increasing competition between leading energy suppliers and the emergence of new strong players, such as Iran, after the lifting of sanctions, and the United States, which made a shale revolution in the energy markets.

Russian oil exports, in addition to increased competition, are also affected by the lack of our technical capabilities in the form of the lack of a sufficient number of regional pipelines and limited port capacity.

It is also important that Russia is not a strategic partner for Japan and South Korea; moreover, relations are affected by the trend of widespread purposeful restriction of Russian influence in the energy sphere of many countries. Therefore, Russian companies cannot count on any friendly preferences from importers.

1 Anti-Russian economic sanctions (sectoral restrictive measures) the energy sector of the Russian Federation has had a very specific negative impact. First, restrictions were imposed on specific oil and gas projects. Thus, the US authorities included the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye oil and gas field, which is part of Gazprom's Sakhalin-3 project, in the list of objects subject to sanctions. This means a ban on the sale of equipment required for this project. For gas production here, Gazprom intends to use underwater complexes that are not produced in Russia. The role of their main supplier before the sanctions was considered by the American FMC.

The European Union has also published a list of goods (for 30 items) that cannot be exported for a number of projects in the Russian oil industry. In addition, the EU has banned European companies from providing Russian partners with services for the exploration and production of deep-sea and Arctic oil, as well as for shale oil projects. Then Australia imposed a ban on the supply of oil and gas equipment to Russia, and Canada imposed restrictions on the export of technologies that are used in the oil and gas industries.

Second, Russia's access to global capital markets and foreign investment was restricted. Third, sanctions were imposed on specific Russian companies. In the energy sector, these are Rosneft, Novatek, Transneft, Gazprom Neft, Lukoil, Surgutneftegaz. See: Chronology of the introduction of sanctions against Russian citizens and companies / / RIA Novosti, 16.02.2015 -

2 China has become the No. 1 client for Russian oil companies / / Prime, 19.01.2016 -

3 The share of oil in Russian exports to China was 52% in 2015 / / TASS, 06.04.2016 -

4 TSVT documents / / Federal Customs Service. Foreign trade statistics -

5 Ibid.

6 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2015.

7 TSVT documents...

8 Japan abandons Middle Eastern oil in favor of Russia. Из-за пиратов // НСН, 25.01.2016 -

9 Japan reduced oil imports to the lowest level since 1988 / / RBC, 25.01.2016 -

10 Mass media: Iran increases oil supplies to Japan / / TASS, 14.02.2016 -

11 Ibid.

12 China in 2015 was the recipient of 48.3% of oil exported through the port of Kozmino / / Prime, 14.01.2016 -

Drobysheva And 13. Transit goes by / / Rossiyskaya gazeta: Economy of the Far East, 18.02.2016.

14 South Korea increased oil imports to the maximum / / Rosbalt, 15.01.2016 -

15 Industry -

Medvedev A.M. 16 Presentation "Gazprom's Strategy in the Asian direction", September 25, 2012, Sakhalin. p. 5.

17 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2015.

18 The growth of LNG exports may lead to overstocking of the market // Ведомости, 17.06.2015 -

Nikitina A 19. PI. ATTS: Russia evaluates its CIS capabilities / / Oil and Gas Vertical, 18.01.2016 -

. Gazprom rejects plans to build a gas pipeline to Japan / / RBC, 02.06.2015 -

Nikitina A 21. Decree. Op.

22 The growth of LNG exports may lead to overstocking of the market // Ведомости, 17.06.2015 -

23 Eastern Asian LNG gross imports declined by 3.9% in 2015 to 152.8 MT // CEDIGAZ, 12.02.2016 -

Zykova T. 24. Gas will go from Sakhalin / / Rossiyskaya gazeta. Special Issue No. 6687 (117), 01.06.2015.

25 Eastern Asian LNG gross imports declined...

26 South Korean media: Russia may start supplying gas to North Korea // Vzglyad, 20.04.2015 - http://www.vz.rU/news/2015/4/20/741037.html

27 Russia forgave North Korea a debt of $11 billion / / Izvestia, 18.09.2012 -



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