The modern world economy is characterized by the deepening of the international division of labor. The higher the level of economic and technological development, the more inter-industry division of labor is replaced by intra-industry division. International production and intra-industry trade serving it are developing. This process is most intensive in the machine-building industry, since the complexity of the final product creates extensive opportunities for separating individual production operations and specializing individual manufacturers in them. As a result, transnational complexes are formed, within which industrial relations cross national borders. National economic policy is increasingly forced to take into account the outlines of such complexes. They determine the priority directions of liberalization of foreign economic activity, economic integration, influence monetary policy, etc. Having identified the main directions of international trade in machine-building products, it is possible to outline the approximate boundaries of such complexes. In this regard, the analysis of trade in machinery and equipment of countries that occupy leading positions in the world of mechanical engineering is of considerable interest. Such countries, of course, include Japan.

Over the past decades, Japan has consistently ranked among the world's largest industrial powers. According to the WTO, in 2004, Russia was the fourth largest exporter of goods in the world (after Germany, the United States, and China).¹. At the same time, the main branch of its global economic specialization is mechanical engineering. Japan is one of the largest manufacturers and exporters of machinery and equipment in the world. To determine the main directions of trade and production relations of its mechanical engineering industry, we will consider the national statistics of foreign trade in machinery and transport equipment (MTO)², which contains the most detailed information on exports and imports.

KEY PARTNERS AND TRADE FLOWS

The period under review (2001 - 2004) is the post-crisis period. As you know, in 2001 there was a decline in the production of information and telecommunication equipment. According to the WTO, its exports worldwide fell by 14%, and in Japan-even more significantly. This led to a serious decline in Japan's industrial exports (as well as Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand and some other Asian countries)³. At the same time, Japan's commodity exports grew significantly slower on average over 2000 - 2004 than the combined exports of Asian countries. However, Japan has remained one of the leading suppliers of MTO to the world market. In 2004, it accounted for 9% of global exports of office and telecommunications equipment (compared to 8.9% of all 25 EU countries ' exports outside the EU) and 13.7% of exports of automotive products4.

In recent years, more than 85% of Japan's MTO exports have been accounted for by the 20 largest importing countries (see Table 1). The list of leading importers has been quite stable, which is largely due to the long - term nature of cooperation in mechanical engineering. For four years (2001 - 2004), 19 of the 20 countries on the list remained unchanged. These are the countries of North America (USA and Canada), East Asia and the Pacific (Australia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, China, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines), Western Europe (Belgium, Great Britain, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, France) and one Latin American country (Panama). Thus, Japan supplies machine-building products to the main industrial sectors.-

SOKOLOV Vyacheslav Vyacheslavovich, Candidate of Economic Sciences.

¹ См.: International Trade Statistics 2005. Geneva, 2005. P. 21.

² MTO trade data covers goods classified in Group 7 of the SITC International Standard Trade Classification.

³ См.: International Trade Statistics 2002. Geneva, 2002. P. 4, 135.

⁴ См.: International Trade Statistics 2005. P. 144, 165.

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Table 1. Japanese exports of machinery and equipment to the top 20 importing countries

Source for Tables 1-5: Japanese Customs Statistics (www.customs.go.jp/download(2001-2004).

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industrially developed or intensively developing regions of the world ⁵.

More than 95% of Japan's MTO imports also come from the top 20 exporting countries (see Table 2). Of these, 18 remained on the list during the entire period under review. Of these countries, 14 were among the top 20 importers of Japanese engineering products. These are two North American countries (the United States and Canada), eight East Asian countries (Indonesia, China, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, the Republic of Korea, and the Philippines), and four Western European countries (Great Britain, Germany, Italy, and France). Thus, Japan's trade in machinery and equipment with North America, East Asia, and major Western European countries is intensive and bilateral in nature.

In trade with all major partners, Japan plays a pronounced role as a net supplier of machine-building products. The value of Japan's MTO exports from 2001 to 2004 was approximately three times the value of its imports. Among the countries included in the lists of the top 20 MTO exporters to Japan and the top 20 MTO importers from Japan, there is not one in which Japan has had an annual trade deficit of more than two times over the four years indicated. In trade with the vast majority of major partners, including the United States, Canada, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, and the leading countries of Western Europe and Southeast Asia, the surplus remains constant. The deficit was observed in some years only in trade with Ireland and Sweden.

The top ten countries to which Japan supplies its machinery products remained unchanged from 2001 to 2004. The main importer was the United States, whose market traditionally focused on the most advanced branches of Japanese engineering. For its part, Japan has managed to gain an exceptional position in this market. According to US statistics, Japan has consistently remained the largest supplier of engineering products in the United States. The second place among importers of its MTO was occupied by China. This is followed by Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea, and Taiwan, swapping places. These US-Asian five companies together account for more than half of all Japanese machine-building exports. In addition to these countries, the top ten included three EU countries (Great Britain, Germany, and the Netherlands) and two Southeast Asian countries (Singapore and Thailand).

The top ten countries that supply MTO to Japan also did not change. However, the location of exporters within it has changed quite significantly. If in 2001 - 2002 the USA continued to lead, then since 2003 they have been pushed to the second place by China. The gradual decline in Taiwan's share led to the fact that in 2004 it was replaced by Germany in the third place in the list. The Republic of Korea rose from fifth place in 2001-2002 to fourth place in 2003-2004. The remaining places were occupied by South-East Asian countries and the United Kingdom.

Despite the long-term efforts of the United States to expand its presence in the Japanese market, it has not acquired the same importance for American industry as the US market for Japanese. Nevertheless, Japan is one of the largest partners for the United States, taking the third place in terms of MTO imports from this country after Canada and Mexico, that is, leading among non-NAFTA countries.

At the same time, the loss of the United States ' role as a leading supplier of machine - building products to Japan was not the only significant shift in its trade in these products: in 2002-2004, exports and imports of MTO increased, and exports grew at a faster pace (see Table 3). At the same time, there was a geographical reorientation of foreign trade. Growth in exports to the United States in 2002 was followed by a dip the following year, followed by a slight increase in 2004. Exports to Western Europe and East Asia increased annually. At the same time, the growth rate of exports to East Asia was higher and more stable.

The decline in exports to the United States in 2003 was accompanied by an acceleration in the growth of exports to East Asia due to deliveries to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, while the growth of exports to Southeast Asia slowed down, as well as a sharp jump to Western Europe. In 2004, the ultra-high growth rate of exports to China slowed down, and as a result, the total increase in shipments to China, Hong Kong and Taiwan was less significant than in the previous year. However, export growth to Southeast Asia accelerated, and as a result, the growth rate of supplies to the East Asian market declined slightly. Exports to Western Europe grew more slowly than to East Asia, but much faster than to the United States.

The share of NAFTA countries, primarily the United States, in Japan's machinery and equipment exports during 2002-2004 decreased from 36.8% to 28.4% (Table 4). The share of Japanese exports decreased, although only slightly.

⁵ For an analysis of the geographical structure of trade in machinery and equipment in the United States, see: V. Sokolov. On some trends in trade in machinery and equipment / / ME and MO. 2004. N11.

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Table 2. Japanese imports of machinery and equipment from the top 20 exporting countries

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Table 3. Japan's foreign trade in machinery and equipment in 2001-2004, billion rubles yen and %¹

¹ In parentheses - growth rates.

² Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand.

³ Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom.

Table 4. Share of major partners in Japan's machinery and equipment exports, %

¹ Australia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand.

² Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand.

³ Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom.

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Table 5. Share of major partners in Japan's imports of machinery and equipment, %

^{1 Australia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand.}

² Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand.

³ Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom.

Europe. At the same time, the share of 10 countries in the Asia-Pacific region (Australia, Hong Kong, Indonesia, China, Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and the Philippines) increased, which in 2003-2004 exceeded 40%. The share of the six East Asian countries in this group remained virtually unchanged. Growth was driven by China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Australia. A decisive role in the reorientation of Japanese exports was undoubtedly played by the increase in supplies to China. The export of machinery and equipment there in 2002-2003 grew by more than 40% per year. In 2004, its growth slowed sharply, but this was partly offset by an acceleration in export growth to Taiwan (Table 3).

As noted back in the 90-ies of F. Ng and A. Yeats, Japan (along with some Western European countries and Taiwan) largely specializes in the supply of parts and components that are used to assemble finished products abroad. The United States, Canada, and most countries in East and Southeast Asia were then net importers of these products.⁶ The development of international trade in parts and components indicates a high level of intra-industry division of labor and industrial cooperation. At the same time, manufacturers of parts and components take on the most complex technological operations of the production cycle.

In the second half of the 1990s and 2000s, these trends significantly increased, primarily due to trade with China. According to WTO experts, " many manufacturers in Japan and other countries with high per capita incomes in the region no longer export finished products to North America and Western Europe, but supply components with a high share of added value for assembly to China and from there send finished products to Western markets through their branches."⁷. The increase in exports to the US and the EU from China was accompanied by a reduction in supplies from other Asian countries.

Similarly, the geographical structure of Japanese MTO imports has changed (Table 1). 5), but trade fluctuations with major partners were more pronounced than in exports. Import of MTO from the USA and Western Europe decreased in 2002,

⁶ См.: Ng F., Yeats A. Production Sharing in East Asia: Who Does What for Whom and Why? The World Bank. Wash., 1999. P. 9 - 15,44.

⁷ International Trade Statistics 2004. Geneva, 2004. P. 1.

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Six East Asian countries, Hong Kong and Taiwan, but increased by almost a third from China. In 2003, imports from the United States, Hong Kong, and Taiwan continued to fall. The growth rate of imports from China remained high, although it declined. However, in contrast to the previous year, the import of MTO from East Asian countries and (very slightly) from Western Europe increased. In 2004, imports from Taiwan and Hong Kong stopped falling, while imports from six countries in East Asia and Western Europe accelerated. Only imports from the US continued to decline.

As a result, the share of NAFTA countries in Japan's machinery imports decreased from 29% in 2001 to 21.4% in 2004.The share of Western European countries also decreased, although only slightly. The share of 10 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, which in 2001 accounted for more than half of the country's machine-building imports, in 2004 approached 60%. At the same time, the combined share of six East Asian countries, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Australia declined, while the entire increase was provided exclusively by the PRC. In 2003, China surpassed the United States in terms of Japanese imports, and in 2004 - the Asian "six". As a result, more than 1/4 of Japan's machine-building imports came from China.

FROM THE "AXIS" OF JAPAN-SOUTHEAST ASIA TO THE "TRIANGLE" OF JAPAN-SOUTHEAST ASIA-CHINA

Japan's role in the global economy as a supplier of machine-building products is not in any way questioned and probably will not be questioned in the foreseeable future. However, the geographical structure of trade in these products in the first half of the 2000s has undergone significant changes. Exports to the NAFTA countries, primarily to the United States, declined not only in terms of their share in total exports, but also in value. The increase in exports to China led to an increase in the share of East Asian countries in Japanese exports, while the share of other countries in this region remained stable (it should be noted that already in the 90s, the policy of preferential lending to exports of machinery and equipment to China contributed to Japan becoming the largest supplier of machinery products there ⁸). At the same time, the share of China and East Asia as a whole in Japan's MTO imports was significantly higher than in exports.

In the system of the global division of labor, the East Asian region has taken over, in particular, the supply of such an important type of machine-building products as semiconductor products to the world economy. According to the European Semiconductor Manufacturers Association (EISA), Japan, Taiwan and the Republic of Korea collectively account for more than half of the world's semiconductor manufacturing capacity (28%, 14% and 9%, respectively).

In general, it can be concluded that a new pattern of intra-industry international division of labor has developed in East Asia in recent years. The strategy of transferring assembly plants abroad has been mastered by Japanese companies for a long time. Japan itself specializes in the production of complex components. Until recently, its companies moved their assembly plants mainly to the countries of Southeast Asia, as well as to Taiwan. International industrial relations in these areas are not only preserved, but also continue to develop. Japan remains the largest supplier of its products to Taiwan, far ahead of the United States and China. Japan's share of Taiwan's imports, although it declined from 1999 to 2003, still exceeds 25%. In 2005, TV manufacturers continued to transfer assembly orders for their products to Taiwanese enterprises. Automotive companies make large investments in Thailand, where both car assembly and component manufacturing are carried out. During trade negotiations in 2005, Japan insisted that Thailand reduce import duties on steel and automobile components.⁹

However, in recent years, the assembly of finished products from Japanese components is increasingly carried out in China. As I. Tselishchev noted, " today the economic situation and prospects of both Japan and other East Asian countries depend to a great extent on how much they will be able to strengthen various ties with China: in particular, to expand exports, using the opportunities of the Chinese market, and to increase their competitiveness by transferring part of the production and technological facilities to China ¹⁰. The transfer of Japanese (as well as Taiwanese) assembly plants to China has significantly changed the global location of machine-building production and the direction of trade flows. Japan's share of global office and telecommunications equipment exports decreased from 11.2% in 2000 to 9% in 2004, Singapore's share - from 7.7 to 7.6, Taiwan's - from 6 to 5, Hong Kong's - from 0.4 to 0.2, Malaysia's-from 5.4 to 5%. Thailand's share remained at 1.9%, while

⁸ See: Kotlyarov N. N. Ekonomicheskie otnoshenii PRC s SSHA [Economic Relations between China and the United States], Moscow, 2003, p. 155.

⁹ See: BIKI. 06.08, 23 and 25.08.2005.

¹⁰ ME and MO. 2003. N 7. P. 48.

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China increased from 4.5% to 15.2%. China took the leading position in the world in this indicator, ahead of not only Japan, but also the United States11. Its share in the world's exports of electronic data processing equipment and office equipment increased especially significantly. ¹² From 2000 to 2004. it has increased four times. The share of Japan and other East Asian countries, including the Republic of Korea, declined.

In such a traditional Japanese industry as the automotive industry, its leadership still looks quite strong. Nevertheless, the country's share of global automotive exports declined from 15.3% in 2000 to 13.7% in 2004.China's share increased from 0.3% to 0.7%, and Thailand's from 0.4% to 0.7% over the same period. The share of Taiwan remained unchanged (0.4%). At the same time, with a relatively small share of China's global exports, it is estimated to have reached the third place in the world in automobile production in 2005. From 2001 to 2004, the production of electronic systems for cars in China tripled (among its leaders is the Japanese company Denso). According to experts, "at the moment, China is a major global production base for many suppliers of electronic automotive equipment, with the help of which they supply a wide variety of customers - regardless of whether they are located on Chinese territory or outside its borders"¹³.

Thus, in certain sectors of mechanical engineering, China is moving to the production of components of finished products, including for export. Nevertheless, it continues to specialize in the assembly of foreign-made components. The share of value added by processing in China in its exports is only 15%¹⁴.

* * *

After analyzing the data on mutual trade of Asian countries in the 80-90s, Yu. Shishkov concluded: "The process of real integration into the Asia-Pacific region is at the initial stage of its crystallization, and so far only Japan, NIS and some other most advanced countries are participating in it. The rest, including China, Russia, and Vietnam, are beyond the threshold of this process. " ¹⁵ Trends in the 2000s have changed this. To date, China can be considered not only as one of the key participants in regional industrial cooperation, but also as an important link in the global machine-building complex, a kind of "assembly shop" of world engineering. Japan occupies a privileged position in this complex as one of the most important suppliers of complex components.

At the same time, China has come to play an important role in meeting Japan's import needs for less sophisticated equipment. As a result, it has become the largest supplier of MTO to the Japanese market, ahead of the United States. As we have seen, other countries in East and South-East Asia also maintain close trade and production ties with Japan, continuing, in particular, to meet a significant part of its needs for machine products. As a result, Japan's MTO imports are dominated by supplies from Asian countries. Japan's cooperation with China complements cooperation with the countries of Southeast Asia and forms a giant multinational production complex in this industry. This complex clearly assumes the role of a globally dominant supplier of products from a number of machine-building industries, including electrical and electronic.

¹¹ See International Trade Statistics 2005. P. 144. Apart from China, only the Republic of Korea increased its share among Asian exporters identified by WTO statistics , from 6.1% in 2000 to 7.3% in 2004.

¹² The latest WTO classification divides the group of goods "office and telecommunications equipment" into the following subgroups: electronic data processing equipment and office equipment, telecommunications equipment, integrated circuits and electronic components (see: International Trade Statistics 2005. P.4).

¹³ BIKI. 15.12.2005.

¹⁴ See: BIKI. 11.08.2005.

^{Shishkov Yu. V.} 15 Integration processes on the threshold of the XXI century. Why the CIS countries do not integrate, Moscow, 2001, p. 342.

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