The material for constructing the 2,367-year tree-ring chronology of Mongun was wood from living trees and remains of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ldb) trunks from the upper forest boundary (2,300 m) of the Mongun-Taiga mountain range. The chronology is in good agreement with the paleoclimatic data and reflects the main climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere over the last two millennia: cooling of the VI century, "medieval warming", "small ice age", and modern warming. Calculation of the response function between it and weather station data allowed us to reconstruct a number of June - July air temperature variability over 2,000 years. The chronology contains a regional climate signal and is suitable for dating archaeological wood, i.e. determining the calendar time of construction of monuments in the Altai-Sayan region.

Key words: Mongun-Taiga, upper forest boundary, tree-ring chronologies, reconstruction, paleoclimate, dating of monuments.

Introduction

When studying the climate of past epochs, first of all, data from hydrometeorological posts and stations are used, but for some territories their density and the length of the observation period are clearly insufficient [IPCC..., 2001, 2007]. For example, in Siberia, the number of series of continuous instrumental observations is small and their duration often does not exceed the last 50 years. In this regard, indirect indicators are used to assess climate changes over long periods of time: lake sediments, spore-pollen spectra, ice columns, lichenometry data, etc.

[Johnsen et al., 2001; Kaplan et al., 2003; Jones and Mann, 2004; Esper et al., 2005; Sidorova, Naurzbaev, Vaganov, 2007; Blyakharchuk et al., 2007; Andreev et al., 2007; Sidorova et al., 2011; et al.] Of particular interest are annual tree rings, which make it possible to obtain reliable information about changes in the main climatic parameters in the past with a time resolution of a year, the growing season [Fritts, 1976; Methods of dendrochronology..., 1990; Dendroclimatic studies..., 1996; etc.].

Dendrochronological studies are of considerable value for the continental regions of Eurasia, since the woody vegetation of mountain ecosystems at the border of their ranges, for example, at the upper limit of their growth, contains an intense climatic signal due to the short duration of the growing season and the high temperature of the forest.-

The work was supported by AVCP N2. 1. 1/6131, Grant of the President of the Russian Federation N MK-1675.2011.6.

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temperature dependence (Adamenko, 1978; Shiyatov, 1986; Ovchinnikov and Vaganov, 1999). At the same time, in contrast to the Subarctic, for which a significant number of long-term paleoclimatic reconstructions have been performed, the number of such reconstructions is small for the Altai-Sayan region [Dendroclimatic studies..., 1996; Naurzbaev, Vaganov, Sidorova, 2003; Hantemirov, Shiyatov, 2002; Sidorova, Naurzbaev, 2002; et al.]. time single continuous tree-ring chronologies with a length of more than a thousand years have been created: for Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ldb) with a duration of 1,093 and 1,772 years for Gorny Altai [Ovchinnikov, Panyushkina, and Adamenko, 2002; Myglan et al., 2009] and 1,929 years for Tyva (Myglan et al., 2008); according to the Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica Tour), 1,738 years for Northern Mongolia (D'Arrigo et al., 2001).

Equally important is the construction of a long-term tree-ring chronology to address the issues of dating and periodization of archaeological sites in the Altai-Sayan region. It is well known that the peoples who lived in this territory largely determined the nature of ethno-cultural development in the vast expanses of Eurasia, but due to the scarcity or complete absence of written data for certain epochs, only archaeological evidence has survived to this day. In the monuments of Scythian and Turkic times, wood is well preserved (burial structures, fence posts, household items, etc.), which makes it possible to determine the relative or absolute dates of its harvesting by dendrochronological analysis [Slyusarenko 1998, 2000, 2010]. Thus, the Mongun tree-ring chronology presented in 2 367 years is a universal tool both for reconstructing the variability of early summer temperatures over the past 2,000 years, and for obtaining reliable calendar dates for the construction of wooden burial structures of archaeological sites.

Material and methods

The research area is located in the western part of the Republic of Tyva and is located on the northern, north-eastern slopes of the Mongun-Taiga mountain range, which covers an area of about 400 km2 and is the center of modern glaciation (the highest point is 3,976,9 m). The climate here is sharply continental, characterized by average annual temperatures below zero (-3 °C) and a large amplitude of the diurnal temperature difference. The average temperature of the summer months ranges from 8.9 to 17 °C (according to the Mughur-Aksy weather station located 20 km from the massif at an altitude of 1,850 m), at altitudes of more than 2,000 m in July, night frosts are observed, snow may fall, some islands of which remain in the valleys of streams and on the slopes of the northern exposure up to at the end of the month, even in the warmest years (Efimtsev, 1957). The territory is characterized by a low amount of precipitation (142 mm per year), most of which falls in the period from May to October, more than 30 % - in July (according to the Mughur-Aksy weather station), i.e., in general, it is in conditions of moderate and insufficient humidity [Klimat..., 1986]. Seasonal permafrost (489 km2) covers the periphery of the array at altitudes of 2 400 - 2 200 It is also confined to rocks in the center (Chistyakov, Moskalenko, and Ganyushkin, 2008).

The main material for the study was Siberian larch wood (Larix sibirica Ldb), which has high indicative properties (high sensitivity of growth to changes in environmental conditions) and a wide ecological growth amplitude. The test areas were laid on the upper border of the forest (height). 2 300 - 2 400 m above sea level), in areas that do not experience a lack of solar radiation. When selecting cores from live trees, sparse stands and separately growing trees were preferred, as far as possible, since in these cases the influence of phytocenotic factors on the formation of the annual ring is less pronounced. The disks were selected from the remains of trunks preserved on the daytime surface (on stony scree, in sandy deposits, etc.) above or at the level of the modern boundary of woody vegetation distribution. The coordinates of each individual sample were recorded using a GPS navigator ("Garmin 60X") with an accuracy of up to thousandths of a degree. As a result of expedition work in 2007-2009 in the Mongun Taiga area, more than 360 samples were collected from an area of approx. 35 km2 (Fig. 1).

The width of the growth rings was measured on a semi-automatic LINTAB unit (with an accuracy of 0.01 mm). Series dating was performed using a combination of graphical cross-dating [Douglass, 1919] and cross-correlation analysis (DPL [Holmes, 1983] and TSAP, V3.5 [Rinn, 1996] in a package of specialized programs for dendrochronological studies). The presence of a significant number of measured and analyzed samples made it possible to perform screening: 37 series with anomalies in growth or preserved as small fragments were selected.

The age trend was removed based on the use of a negative exponent and a spline of two-thirds of the length of the individual chronology in the ARSTAN program [Cook, Krasic, 2008]. For quality assessment

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Figure 1. Location of weather stations (a) and sample collection area (b).

Traditional indicators were used for the constructed tree-ring chronology (DCS): standard deviation, which characterizes the amplitude of the partial variability of growth; EPS, which evaluates the sensitivity of DCS to changes in external factors (depends on the number of samples analyzed and shows how a specific limited sample reflects the signal of an entire population or general population); RBAR - the average value of the correlation coefficient between individual series [Wigley, Briffa, Jones, 1984; Methods of dendrochronology..., 1990]. To compare the growth indices with climate data, we used materials from instrumental observations of surface air temperature and precipitation from the meteorological stations Ak-Kem, Aktru, Kosh-Agach, Uigi, Ulangom, and Erzin.

Results and discussion

In 2007, the total number of dated models in the tree-ring chronology was 98, including 20 for living trees and 78 for dead ones, which made it possible to construct a continuous scale with a duration of 1,929 years (Fig. 2, A) [Myglan et al., 2008]. The spatial analysis of the distribution of paleo-wood samples showed the presence of separate groups of trees that have been preserved for the last two millennia and are the centers of expansion of woody vegetation in warm epochs. It was these sites that were emphasized in the further search for tree remains in order to extend the chronology and improve the quality of its filling in the interval from the VI to the VIII centuries AD. The complex of expedition - cameral works carried out in 2008-2010 allowed increasing the number of series to 302 (of which 47 were built on living trees, the figure is given without taking into account selected samples) and extend the chronology to 359 BC (i.e., its length was 2,367 years). As a result, the quality of the tree-ring chronology significantly improved due to an increase in the number of replications (Fig. The share of" dropped " rings decreased from 0.05% to 0.02% in comparison with 2007. The average age of samples decreased from 365 to 354 years (due to an increase in the number of fragmentary preserved samples), but the maximum age of trees increased from 804 to 859 years. The presence in the chronology of individual tree-ring series of this duration suggests that it reflects not only intra-centennial, but also the climatic fluctuations exceeding the secular interval.

Figure 2. Standardized Mongun tree-ring chronology for 2007 (A) and 2010 (B)

A thin line shows weather patterns, a bold line shows fluctuations in growth indices smoothed out by a low - frequency filter, and a horizontal line shows the arithmetic mean.

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Figure 3. Distribution of trees used to construct the Mongun tree-ring chronology relative to the beginning of their growth.

Analysis of the indices of intra-centennial variability of growth showed a significant decrease in the first century BC, in the second half of the first, second and fifth centuries AD, the sixth century, the first half of the IX century, the middle of the X century, the second half of the XII century, the middle of the XV century, the end of the XVI-beginning of the XVII century, the middle of the XVII - XIX century Periods with high growth occurred in the first half of the first century A.D., the third - middle of the fifth century A.D., the middle of the seventh century, the second half of the ninth and tenth centuries, the first half of the fifteenth century, the middle of the sixteenth century, the first half of the seventeenth century, and the twentieth century (Fig. 3). At the same time, the periods that are unfavorable for the growth of woody vegetation are visually distinguished, which include a sharp increase in tree death and a slowdown in the process of reforestation, as well as the death of undergrowth - the second half of the V - VI century, the XIII-XIV and XVII-XVIII centuries.

When analyzing the EPS and RBAR indicators for the 2007 DCS, we clearly see a drop in values in the period from 450 to 600 (Figs. 4, A, B), which is due to the low availability of samples in this period due to the death of trees during the cold snap that occurred in the middle of the VI century, and the destruction of part of the peripheral rings in the samples wood that has been lying on the day surface for more than 1,000 years. An increase in the number of sample replications in the 2010 DCS allowed us to improve the overall quality of the chronology, and the values of EPS and RB AR indicators for the period from the fifth to the seventh centuries increased (Figs. 4, C, D). As a result, it became possible to perform a year-long reconstruction of the early summer temperature in the Altai-Sayan region over the past 2,000 years based on the Mongun chronology.

Figure 4. Statistical characteristics of RBAR and EPS in the Mongun timeline for 2007 (A, B) and 2010 (C, D).

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Correlation coefficients of growth indices with weather station data

Months

Ak-Kem

Aktru

Kosh-Agach

Erzin

Uyghi

Ulaanbaatar

Std

Res

Std

Res

Std

Res

Std

Res

Std

Res

Std

Res

IV

-0,14

-0,11

0,09*

0,13*

0,03

-0,08

-0,01

-0,14

0,01*

-0,18*

-0,10*

-0,17*

V

0,08

0,24

0,41*

0,49*

0,17

0,18

0,02

0,03

-0,07*

-0,10*

0,04*

0,06*

VI

0,56

0,65

0,60

0,62

0,47

0,46

0,41

0,29

0,46

0,50

0,53

0,50

VII

0,32

0,39

0,31

0,36

0,41

0,33

0,42

0,25

0,59

0,62

0,31

0,33

VIII

0,01

0,18

-0,09*

-0,08*

0,14

0,09

0,12

0,01

0,20*

0,13*

0,13*

0,16*

IX

-0,06

-0,01

-0,21*

-0,10*

0,07

0,03

0,02

0,00

-0,01*

-0,02*

0,17*

0,17*

VI-VII

0,62

0,72

0,66

0,70

0,57

0,53

0,50

0,33

0,64

0,57

0,54

0,53

N

35

37 (26)

68

57

37 (38)

40 (38)

Note: std - standardized tree-ring chronology, res - residual tree-ring chronology (without autocorrelation component), N - amount of sample used, asterisk indicates coefficients calculated for the sample volume indicated in parentheses.

To quantify the climate signal contained in the chronology, the response functions between it and the available data from instrumental meteorological observations were calculated (see the table). The results of the analysis show that the main influence on the variability of radial growth is exerted by the temperatures of June - July, with the predominant influence of June temperatures. For example, comparing the growth indices with the series of instrumental observations from the Ak-Kem weather station can explain up to 50 % of the total variability of the June - July temperature course. The results obtained are in good agreement with the data of other researchers [D'Arrigo et al., 2001; Ovchinnikov, Panyushkina, and Adamenko, 2002; et al.]. The presence of a stable and significant relationship between the growth indices and the data of weather stations located at a distance of 300-400 km from the sample collection point shows that the variability of the growth rate is tree-ring-shaped. The Mongun timeline reflects changes in summer temperature at least on a regional scale. At the same time, the high correlation coefficients of the growth indices with the series of instrumental meteorological observations in the Central Altai and Northern Mongolia and the low ones with the data of weather stations located to the east are consistent with the zoning schemes relating the Mongun-Taiga massif to the Eastern Altai (Relef..., 1988).

Most closely related to the growth indices are the series of instrumental observations from the Ak-Kem weather station. Since the material for constructing the tree-ring chronology was collected in a small area with similar growing conditions for woody vegetation, the relationship between growth and temperature changes should be stable over time. In this case, based on the obtained dependences, a model was constructed by calculating linear regression, which allowed us to reconstruct the course of June - July temperatures over the past 2,000 years (Fig.
Figure 5 clearly shows that the drop in early summer temperature occurs in the second half of the first, second, and fifth centuries, the sixth century, the first half of the ninth century, the middle of the tenth century, the second half of the twelfth century, the middle of the fifteenth century, the end of the sixteenth and early seventeenth centuries, and the middle of the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries. The favorable growth conditions of woody vegetation are determined not only by the average summer temperature, but also by its variability and the frequency of extremely cold seasons. In terms of its consequences, the effect of a series of such seasons can be equated with an additional decrease in the average summer temperature by one to two degrees (Khantemirov, 2009). In terms of the number of years with summer temperatures below the average by more than 1 °C, the coldest were the VI, VIII, XVII, XVIII and XIX centuries. On the scale of decades, the most severe periods were 529-553, 576-605, and 1778-1819, the latter probably serving as the maximum manifestation of the little Ice Age in the Altai. Analysis of the weather variability of summer temperatures allowed us to distinguish a series of cold years: 536-538, 540; 549 and 550; 591 and 592; 1190 and 1191; 1775 and 1776; 1788-1790; 1813 and 1814; 1883 and 1884. When comparing the periods of decreasing summer temperatures with the frequency of abnormally cold summer seasons, it is clearly seen that the VI and XVII-XIX centuries were the most extreme. This is also confirmed by the increase in the number of dead trees in these centuries (see Figure 3). This indicator of summer temperature variability indicates that cooling during the little ice age (XVII-XIX centuries) was more unfavorable (high dispersion) for the forest vegetation of mountain ecosystems than in the VI century.

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Figure 5. Reconstructed series of early summer temperature variations based on the Mongun tree-ring chronology (A) and the number of extremely warm and cold summers with temperatures above and below the average by more than 1 °C (hatching) and 1.5 °C (solid fill) over centuries (B).

An increase in the early summer temperature was observed in the first half of the first century, the middle of the fifth century, the middle of the seventh century, the second half of the ninth and tenth centuries, the first half of the fifteenth century, the middle of the sixteenth century, the first half of the seventeenth century, and the twentieth century. In terms of the number of positive anomalies, the warmest were I, III-IV, and VII-IX. XV and XX centuries. On the scale of decades, we can note the periods of 40-66.. 652 - 676, 969 - 991, 1405 - 1432, 1554 - 1573, 1612 - 1630 and from the 30s of the XX century to the present. Analysis of the weather variability of summer temperatures allows us to distinguish a series of warm years: 64 and 65; 233 and 234; 381-384; 665 and 666; 673 - 676; 730 and 731; 876, 877, 879 - 882; 1168 - 1170; 1417 and 1418; 1929-1931; 1945 and 1946; 1979-1982 The period of" medieval warming " occurred in the 7th-10th centuries, which coincides with the data obtained by other researchers for China and adjacent mountain systems (Chu Ko-Chen, 1973; Solomina, 1999). The greatest number of warm seasons was observed in the XX century: 19 out of 85 cases (Fig.

Analysis of the weather variability of summer temperature is important in historical terms, since it directly affects the yield of agricultural crops and pasture productivity (Myglan et al., 2007). Intra-centennial climate fluctuations have a more significant impact (due to their duration) not only the functioning of mountain ecosystems [Shiyatov and Mazepa, 2007], but also the social processes associated with the economic activity of the population [Myglan, 2010]. If we turn to historical evidence, then, for example, such phenomena as cooling in the VI century, the little ice age, are well documented. Thus, in 509, rivers in England froze for more than two months, 536 and a number of subsequent years are characterized by cold summers with a powerful thick fog, crop failure, famine, epidemics (Justinian's plague), in 548 there was such a snowy and frosty winter that birds and animals could be caught by hand [Bailie, 1994; Klimenko, 2009; et al.]. A significant number of works are devoted to the abnormally cold year 536, which is recorded according to dendrochronological data (in the form of structural damage This phenomenon is characterized by the presence of large-scale forests, "falling" rings, faults, and reduced radial tree growth) in England (Bailie, 1994), Mongolia (D'Arrigo et al., 2001), eastern Taimyr, and northeastern Yakutia (Sidorova, Naurzbaev, and Vaganov, 2005), which indicates the global nature of the phenomenon. On the scale of the effects of cold snap in the VI century. For Europe and Byzantium, the fact that, according to incomplete data, there were 39 famine years in this century speaks volumes [Klimenko, 2009]. Undoubtedly, the consequences of such a cold snap should have manifested themselves in the Altai. It is no coincidence that archaeological cultures changed from Bulan - Kobin to Turkic at this time (Tishkin, 2007; Kubarev, 2001). This circumstance has a logical explanation. A drop in temperature led to a deterioration in the conditions for pasture animal husbandry - the basis of the local population's economy. The cold snap caused an increase in winter precipitation in steppe and semi-desert areas, a reduction in the growing season in summer pastures, and a decrease in the area of winter pastures. As a result, the territory was depopulated. After the end of the temperature minimum period, it began to be actively developed again, but, as a rule, by carriers of a different culture (Bykov, Myglan, Ovchinnikov, 2008). The small Ice Age was no less dramatic for the population of Siberia, which was also replete with reports of crop failures and famine (Myglan, 2010).

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Thus, the Mongun 2,367-year tree-ring chronology is a unique source of information about the dynamics of the summer temperature regime in the Altai-Sayan region, since changes in the physical characteristics of the annual rings of living trees and fossil wood reflect the weather and long-term variability of June - July temperatures and provide the necessary level of reliability of statistical models for dendroclimatic reconstructions over two years. the last millennia. The reconstruction of the temperature regime of the Altai-Sayan region is in good agreement with general climatic trends, and the "536 event", "medieval warming", small Ice Age, and modern warming are clearly distinguished. Analysis of growth indices reveals" waves of death " of trees on the upper border of the forest, coinciding with periods of maximum cooling and activation of glaciers in the Altai, the formation of a young generation of trees correlates with periods of warming, which is typical for the XX century. The construction of a chronology of this duration provides a reliable basis for dating archaeological wood for the first time. This will allow you to set the calendar time for the construction of monuments in the Altai-Sayan region.

Thus, as a result of this work, for the first time for the territory of the Altai-Sayan mountain country, it was possible to construct an absolute tree-ring chronology of 2,367 years (Mongun). Its quality ensures reliable weather-related reconstruction of changes in summer temperature over the last two millennia. The length of the tree-ring chronology allows us to obtain absolute dates for "floating" tree-ring chronologies based on materials from archaeological sites of the first millennium BC, not to mention later periods. In the future, it can be extended to 6,000 years.

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The article was submitted to the Editorial Board on 23.01.12. The final version was published on 26.01.12.

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