GENERAL TREND OF DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS IN EGYPT IN THE I-XVIII CENTURIES.
The long-term demographic dynamics of preindustrial societies were characterized by a combination of millennial trend dynamics with secular cyclical dynamics (see, for example, Korotaev, Malkov, and Khalturina, 2005). At the same time, for a deep understanding of the dynamics of "secular cycles", it is necessary to take into account the dynamics of the "millennial trend". In this article, we will begin our analysis of the long-term political and demographic dynamics of Egypt by identifying the general nature of the trend dynamics characteristic of Egypt in the period of interest. Estimates of the overall long-term demographic dynamics of Egypt can be graphically presented as follows (figure 1): Chart 1. Population dynamics of Egypt (thousand people, 10,000 BC-2000 AD) ----- Sources of data on population dynamics in Egypt for 1950-2005: [Maddison, 2001; US Bureau..., 2005; World Bank..., 2005]; for 1897-1950: [Arab..., 1990, p. 205; Namik, 1952; Cleveland, 1936, p. 7; Craig, 1917; McCarthy, 1976, p. 31-33]; for 1800 - 1897: D. Panzac's estimates were used [Panzac, 1987]1-see fig. below is the rationale for using these estimates; for Ancient Egypt, we used the estimates of K. McEvedy and R. Jones [McEvedy and Jones, 1978, p. 226-229], as well as K. V. Butzer [Butzer, 1976, p. 81-98]; source of reconstruction of the general form of ancient Egyptian political and demographic macrocycles 2: [The Oxford..., 2000]. 1 Taking into account the estimates of human losses as a result of the plague epidemic (1835) made by J. McCarthy [McCarthy, 1976, p. 15]. 2 These macrocycles, in turn, consisted of microcycles, which we preferred to refrain from reconstructing at this stage of the study. page 18 Estimates of population dynamics in Egypt from 300 BC to 1900 AD can be presented graphically as follows (diagr. 2): Chart 2. Population dynamics of Egypt (thousand people) (300 BC-1900 AD) For the end of the first century BC, the estimate of Diodorus Siculus (1.31.6 - 9) was used, wh ... Read more
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03.07.2024 (16 days ago)
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